Is World War Three on its way?

Eastern European members of Nato are dramatically ramping up defence spending as they look to protect their borders from the growing threat posed by Russia.

Nearly three years on from Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, "liberal-democratic" states across Europe "are in agreement", defence expert Francis Tusa said in The Independent: if Kyiv "loses its struggle against Russia, the latter may be emboldened to take military action against the Baltic states, Finland, or even Poland".

Many defence specialists agree the timeline for this is "within three to five years" and would force Nato into all-out conflict with Moscow, which could in turn call on allies from China, North Korea and Iran to join in a global war.

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Russia

European nations have quietly begun to "lay down the foundations for possible war with Russia", said Newsweek as 2024 drew to a close.

Nato is preparing for "several scenarios" including "an all-out shooting war", and "the more likely but less obvious scenario" where well-worn techniques are employed to "undermine stability among member states".

It follows the outgoing Biden administration's decision to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied missiles inside Russia at the end of last year. This drew a furious response from Vladimir Putin, who immediately lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, allowing Moscow to respond with nukes if it is attacked by any state using conventional weapons. Russia now also formally considers an assault on its territory by a non-nuclear power that is supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack. In short, said Sky News, US missiles fired by Ukraine "meet the new criteria".

"Serious analysts express concern that Russia may escalate and the world, as it has done so many times in the era of mass warfare, may sleepwalk its way into an engulfing conflict," said The New Statesman.

But there are "compelling reasons" why Russia won't follow through and escalate the conflict, said Sky News, not least because Putin is "unlikely to risk incurring the wrath" of a new Trump administration poised to be more sympathetic than its predecessor.

Middle East

After more than a year of instability that has seen the Middle East come perilously close to an all-out regional war, there are hopes an imminent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could finally lead to a de-escalation of tensions.

"We're on the brink" of "finally" bringing a peace plan to "fruition", outgoing US President Joe Biden said in a valedictory foreign policy speech on Monday.

The "breakthrough" has been reached after months of talks, said Reuters, with a draft proposal to halt the fighting in the Gaza Strip and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners seen "as a first step towards an end to the 15-month-old war". There is hope a deal can be agreed by the end of the week, with Donald Trump's 20 January inauguration "now widely seen as a de facto deadline for a cease-fire agreement".

The sudden rush to get a deal over the line is being driven by fears the incoming US administration will not be as hospitable to Hamas as Biden has been.

Last week. Trump vowed "all hell will break out" in the Middle East if the Islamist group did not release the remaining hostages it holds. Clarifying these comments on Monday, Trump's Vice President-elect J.D. Vance said this meant "enabling the Israelis to knock out the final couple of battalions of Hamas and their leadership".

The ceasefire hopefully marks a turning point for the region, following a tumultuous 15 months that started with Hamas' deadly 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, followed by the invasion of Gaza, the significant weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Perhaps most concerning is the effect these events have had on Iran. The Tehran regime's "growing vulnerability" has alarmed its government, said The Washington Post, "stirring fears that its steadily escalating conflict with Israel could soon enter a more dangerous phase".

Tensions are already running "high" over Iran's nuclear programme, said Al Jazeera, "which critics fear is aimed at developing a nuclear weapon – something Tehran has repeatedly denied".

The US and UK are "increasingly concerned" that Russia is sharing secret information and technology with Iran, which could "bring it closer to being able to build nuclear weapons, in exchange for Tehran providing Moscow with ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine", said Bloomberg.

Due to the "complex web of alliances and rivalries" across the Middle East, conflicts between Iran and Israel could see the US brought directly into the fighting, said The Independent. Trump has been a vocal hawk against Iran, so his second presidency will do little to temper concerns.

China

It has long been assumed that the greatest threat to geopolitical stability is the growing tension between China and the US in recent years, most notably over Taiwan and the question of its sovereignty.

Beijing sees the island nation as an integral part of a unified Chinese territory. It has, in recent years, adopted an increasingly aggressive stance towards the island and its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it has denounced as dangerous separatists, but who won an unprecedented third term early last year. At the same time, the US has ramped up its support – financially, militarily and rhetorically – for Taiwan's continued independence.

Last year, the top US military commander in the Indo-Pacific said that Beijing is maintaining its goal of being able to invade Taiwan by 2027. Admiral John Aquilino told the US House Armed Services Committee that China wants to build up its People's Liberation Army (PLA) "on a scale not seen" since the Second World War.

The year 2027 is seen as "magical" because it marks the centenary of what was to become the PLA, said Robert Fox in London's The Standard. The idea that this anniversary could coincide with a serious military operation by Beijing has become a "fixation" in Washington, said Defense News. It has "impacted the debate over China policy – a shift from the long term to the short term" while also helping to steer billions of dollars towards US forces in the Pacific.

Beijing and Washington have become "desensitised" to the risk these circumstances pose, said Foreign Policy, and in the "militarisation of foreign policy and the failure to grasp the full significance of that militarisation, the pair are one accident and a bad decision removed from a catastrophic war".

Any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times in April 2023. It would "make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".

But leading Taiwanese officials have "moved to ease concern" about the "potential fallout" of a second Trump term, said Bloomberg. The technology restrictions promised by the Republican against China would outweigh the risks to the island.

North Korea

Since talks with Trump in 2019 broke down over disagreements about international sanctions on Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un has "focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals", said Sky News.

In a symbolic move yet nevertheless strategically important move, at the start of 2024 he announced that the hermit kingdom had abandoned "the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea", said The Associated Press.

The south has since scrapped a "2018 non-hostility pact aimed at lowering military tensions", The Independent said. This indicates the "psychological warfare" had "tipped over into real escalation".

In a further sign North Korea is increasingly willing to wield influence beyond its borders, its troops have been deployed against Ukraine to help Russia with its war effort. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had captured two North Korean soldiers, with around 300 believed to have now been killed in the war, according to Seoul's National Intelligence Service.

Ukraine's former military commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny said the direct involvement of North Korean troops in Russia means the Third World War has already begun.