What's China winning from Trump's trade war?

There are a lot of losers in the global trade war that President Donald Trump declared last week. But there is also potentially a big winner: China.

America's new tariff policy "could end up making China great again," said The Economist. The fallout from Trump's announcement is "creating opportunities to redraw the geopolitical map of Asia in China's favor." To be sure, Beijing "came out badly" in the tariff announcement, which saw its total levies on exports to the U.S. rise to 65%. And the ensuing trade war could "trigger a global recession" that damages America's rival. However, President Xi Jinping now has a "chance to expand China's influence, especially in the global south."

Indeed, China is already offering "trauma bonding" with other U.S. trading partners, said The Washington Post. It was previously "working to exploit cracks" in international relationships created by U.S. cuts to foreign aid and the abandonment of climate change talks under Trump. Now, Beijing is reaching out to the European Union, South Korea and Japan to "join forces to resist Trump's protectionism."

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Navigating 'volatility and uncertainty'

It is not as though "Beijing is simply celebrating what the U.S. government is doing," Yangyang Cheng, a research scholar at Yale Law School, said to WBUR's "On Point." While China "may be seeking opportunities to build and foster new alliances," it also has to navigate the geopolitical "volatility and uncertainty" created by the Trump administration. Two popular Chinese nicknames for Trump signal the peril and opportunity at play: One, Te Mei Pu, translates as "Super Clueless." The other, Chuan Jian Guo, is "Trump Makes China Great Again."

Xi has launched a "charm offensive" in the wake of Trump's announcement, Phillip Inman said at The Guardian. But the trade war comes amid China's own extensive economic struggles. If Xi cannot persuade America's trading partners to ally with him — and take Chinese exports that will no longer be competitively priced in the U.S. — he "may have no choice but to stimulate its vast domestic market." That would be a radical shift for China's export-driven economy, but possibly necessary: "A rapprochement with the U.S. looks unlikely."

The West: 'Weak, divided and in retreat'

Xi "had an excellent week," said The Wall Street Journal. China's authoritarian system will help him "ride out whatever political or social pain" results from the trade war, while Republicans in the United States will have to face voters in 18 months. But Trump's tariffs and the international reaction may also serve as a vindication for Xi. He sees the West as "weak, divided and in retreat." Now he has confirmation, and he "won't have to do much to exploit those divisions."

U.S.-China relations will not be improved. Trump's "provocative" moves mean the prospects of a China-U.S. summit are "dimming," said the South China Morning Post. In the meantime, Beijing plans a patient approach to the Trump administration and will watch to see if a political backlash develops in America. China will "hold out for two years and see," said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based professor of international affairs. "In a sense, there's no urgent need for the leaders' meeting this year."