CDC makes 'significant' slash to estimate of Omicron's prevalence nationwide

New Yorkers wait in line for COVID-19 tests.
(Image credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday estimated that the Omicron variant was responsible for about 59 percent of COVID cases nationwide in the week ending Dec. 25, reports The New York Times, "a significant decrease from the agency's previous estimate." Experts told the Times that such revisions reveal "how hard it is to track the fast-spreading variant in real time and how poorly the agency has communicated its uncertainty."

Last week, the CDC estimated that Omicron accounted for approximately 73 percent of cases for the week ending Dec. 18, but has now had to revise that down to 23 percent.

A CDC spokesperson said the issue was due to how fast Omicron's been spreading, per Politico.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

"There was a wide predictive interval posted in last week's chart, in part because of the speed at which Omicron was increasing," said CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed. "We had more data come in from that timeframe and there was a reduced proportion of Omicron."

Experts "were not surprised" by the CDC's revisions, given the estimation process, but felt the agency "did a poor job" conveying the uncertainty of it all, writes the Times.

"I think this is one example among many where scientists are trying to project an air of confidence about what's going to happen," said virologist David O'Connor.

That said, this current estimate of 59 percent is also likely to change, experts noted.

"I just want people to be very aware that that is an estimate, that's not actually from sequence-confirmed cases," added epidemiologist Nathan Grubaugh. "With Omicron in particular, it's been very difficult to have any sort of projections, because things are changing just so so rapidly." Read more at The New York Times.

To continue reading this article...
Continue reading this article and get limited website access each month.
Get unlimited website access, exclusive newsletters plus much more.
Cancel or pause at any time.
Already a subscriber to The Week?
Not sure which email you used for your subscription? Contact us
Brigid Kennedy

Brigid Kennedy worked at The Week from 2021 to 2023 as a staff writer, junior editor and then story editor, with an interest in U.S. politics, the economy and the music industry.