Where does Nikki Haley go after New Hampshire?

Nikki Haley has made little secret that she sees the upcoming New Hampshire primary as her ticket to beating former President Donald Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Speaking to a crowd of supporters at an event in Milford, New Hampshire, earlier this month, Haley laid out her plan for the first three early-voting states of the primary season, joking that while Iowa "starts" the race, "you correct it" before "South Carolina brings it home."

Haley's hope that the New Hampshire primary will further energize her post-Iowa campaign is understandable; in spite of Trump's overall dominance of the GOP field, his former UN Ambassador has pulled within striking distance of — and in a recent American Research Group poll, even tied with — her erstwhile boss in the Granite State, leapfrogging Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who trails in distant third. Moreover, the state's traditional brand of more moderate, libertarian-tinged conservatism is a much better fit for Haley than Iowa's heavily evangelical-skewed Republican base. And while New Hampshire primary voters "may not have a crystal ball" when it comes to the GOP race, they do "hold a slightly better track record" than Democrats at predicting the eventual party nominee, and even general election winner, according to analysis from ABC News. 

For as much as Haley wants to sell the narrative that her third-place showing in Iowa "made this Republican primary a two-person race" between her and Trump in New Hampshire and beyond, the truth is decidedly less binary. 

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What the commentators said

Despite her strong southern conservatism, Haley has become "by default the candidate of northern moderates who want to defeat Trump" in what the Los Angeles Times called an "alliance of convenience more than enthusiasm." At the same time, because New Hampshire "differs so much from the Republican norm," it may represent Haley's "best — and perhaps last — shot" while Trump "remains the overwhelming favorite to win almost everywhere else."

Despite her best efforts to the contrary, Haley's third-place finish in Iowa "denied her the opportunity" to make the race a two-way contest, University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala wrote at Politico. But, he cautioned, Haley's more "fundamental" problem is that, in spite of New Hampshire's tradition of independent-minded moderation, its registered Republicans remain deeply conservative, putting her in "imminent danger of becoming a candidate too closely tied to one faction of her party" instead of showing an ability to build a broad coalition — a challenge "here in New Hampshire, in South Carolina, or on Super Tuesday." The primary races after New Hampshire will be "much less hospitable" to Haley, whose main demographic of support is with "less religious, more educated and wealthier" Republicans, agreed Damon Linker for The New York Times.  Even if she wins decisively in New Hampshire, the state's open primary rules which allow independents and recently-switched party affiliation voters to participate would serve as "validation that Haley is an imitation" of longtime Trump antagonist Liz Cheney — a kiss of death for anyone hoping to capture the MAGA-fied GOP vote nationwide, according to The Federalist.

Even her home state of South Carolina is "Trump country," warned The Wall Street Journal. In order to "blunt" his dominance, Haley would need to "win, or come very close" in New Hampshire, and "score a convincing win on her home turf" shortly thereafter. Trump, however, is not only leading in South Carolina by more than 30 points, according to Real Clear Polling, but has "has far more top endorsements in the state" and has criticized Haley for not doing better "given her résumé."

What next?

A spate of New Hampshire event cancellations and reluctance to take questions from voters is a sign that Haley is hoping "less of her will end up being more" when voters head to the polls next week, according to NBC News. 

Trump, meanwhile has clawed back his double-digit New Hampshire lead over Haley in a trio of post-Iowa polls, the outlet reported. For all Haley has bet on that state as "correcting" her Iowa loss ahead of South Carolina cementing her lead in place, a "dominant Trump victory in New Hampshire could doom" her campaign before she even makes it to her home state, Axios reported.