Does the Hamas attack threaten Netanyahu's hold on power?

Terror attacks often produce a "rally around the flag" effect: Think of George W. Bush’s skyrocketing popularity after 9/11. That may not entirely be the case in Israel after the horrific and deadly attack by Hamas over the weekend. "The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu," the Israeli newspaper Haaretz editorialized this week. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in Israeli history. Is he vulnerable now?

Netanyahu has long presented himself as the best option for Israel’s safety in a dangerous region. Now that claim is in question. "Once billed as Mr. Security, Netanyahu and the Israeli government failed to provide the most basic security needs of Israel’s citizens," David A. Halperin argued at The Jerusalem Post. And Netanyahu may take additional blame if Israelis decide that the massive protests spurred by his attempts at "judicial reform" distracted the country from the threats on its borders. This moment arrives "after months of the fiercest political and societal divisions Israel has ever experienced."

Those critiques may only go so far: The Wall Street Journal reported that Netanyahu and opposition leaders are considering a "unity government" to lead the war effort against Hamas. Even that can be read as a critique of Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition: "Prime Minister Netanyahu knows that with the current extreme and dysfunctional security cabinet, he can’t manage a war," said opposition leader Yair Lapid.

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What the commentators said

The attacks are the "beginning of the end for Netanyahu," William A. Galston argued at The Wall Street Journal. While "now is not the time for recriminations," it is inevitable that a commission of inquiry will eventually examine what went wrong. That will most likely produce "profound changes in Israeli politics." The prime minister has long made the case that he is best equipped to ensure Israel’s safety. "The events of the past few days have undermined this claim."

"Netanyahu can no longer lead the country," Dov S. Zakheim argued at The Hill. Israel’s first priority is to "root out all terrorists from its territory" and "extract the hostages from the terrorists’ grip." But that’s not enough. Netanyahu has "bitterly divided his country" with his attempts to reform the judiciary — reforms that came after (and perhaps because of) his indictments on corruption charges. The prime minister’s "single-minded efforts to avoid criminal prosecution" created such deep divisions that Israel emboldened its "most implacable and bloodthirsty enemies." Now? "Urgent political change" is needed.

Perhaps the proposed wartime unity government gives Netanyahu a shot at political survival, Israel-based Cole S. Aronson wrote in Politico. Israel faces its "worst security crisis in years." A unity government "would benefit him as well as Israel’s unity, security and international standing." Yes, the judicial reform push "has been a political disaster for Netanyahu." The effort was widely seen as an attempt to "specifically disempower liberals." Bringing liberals into government would neutralize those concerns, giving Netanyahu the opportunity "to secure his legacy as the most important Jewish leader since Israel’s founding."

What next?

Financial Times reported Tuesday that Netanyahu’s Likud party "had authorized him to negotiate a unity government" with the center-right National Unity party led by Benny Gantz, a former general. "Our current reality demands we realize that we face a strategic event of critical importance to the State of Israel," Gantz said Sunday. "This is not an operation, this is a war."

In recent years, Shimrit Meir, former senior adviser to ex-Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, wrote in The New York Times, "Israelis instead found themselves engaged in an all-out war — not against terrorists but against themselves." Now it’s clear that Israel cannot "afford the luxury of a vicious internal fight." It is time for unity, but it remains to be seen whether that unity is possible. At Haaretz, the campaign against Netanyahu continues. "Netanyahu must go now," writer Alan Pinkas argued this week. "Not after the Gaza War."