Is Hamas losing control in Gaza?

Hamas' two-decade rule over Gaza may finally be coming to an end, amid the Israeli occupation, challenge from a rising rival militia, and growing opposition among its own people.

In response, the Islamist group has suggested in recent statements it could hand over control of Gaza willingly, but does this "signal a real change of heart, or are they just another calculated move to buy time and polish their image on the world stage?", asked The Jerusalem Post.

What did the commentators say?

Confirmation at the weekend of former Hamas military chief Mohammed Sinwar's death "changes little in and of itself", said The Economist. As happened with the killing of previous leaders, the group has been quick to appoint a replacement, "but it could shift the balance within the movement's leadership", which has until now been "dominated by Gazans".

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Hamas leaders outside the strip – currently based in Doha, Beirut and Istanbul – "have the upper hand once again". They are "expected to support" a ceasefire deal "relinquishing Hamas' post-war role in Gaza but preserving its standing in the Arab world".

Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the group's new de facto leader in Gaza, "will have to decide now if he wants to be remembered as the man on whose watch Gaza was finally destroyed", an Israeli intelligence analyst said. "He may prefer to be the last man standing after a ceasefire."

An "added challenge" facing the new commander will be "how to keep control of a desperate civilian population, for whom hunger is now proving a more potent force than fear", said The Telegraph.

It has always been hard to assess civilian support for Hamas within Gaza, but a "series of protests in recent weeks has led some analysts to believe that ordinary Gazans' fear of Hamas was waning".

Hamas has responded to the emergence of rival leader Yasser Abu Shabab and his Popular Forces militia in eastern Rafah with a "rising tone of desperation" that is "telling", said The Spectator.

That Abu Shabab's Popular Forces "operate openly – within an IDF-controlled zone, sheltering thousands of Gazan civilians – signals a breach in Hamas' dominance". The movement has "long accustomed itself to a monopoly on governance and security in the strip; now, the spectacle of an armed, non-Hamas force coordinating humanitarian corridors and liaising with international relief efforts strikes at the very foundation of that monopoly".

"Yet behind the public bravado lies a more intricate web," with reports that Abu Shabab receives instructions from a senior adviser to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as well as support from elements of Israel's security establishment.

What next?

Sensing an opportunity to end Hamas' near 20-year grip on Gaza, Abbas has said the group must "hand over its weapons" and called for the deployment of international forces to protect "the Palestinian people".

In a letter addressed to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who this month will co-chair a conference on a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians, the veteran Palestinian leader said he was "ready to invite Arab and international forces to be deployed as part of a stabilisation/protection mission with a (UN) Security Council mandate".

In a "sign that Hamas perhaps understands that it is no longer in a position to rule Gaza", it has even offered to turn over the administration of Gaza to a technocratic government, reported Al Jazeera.

The problem is that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has "two main tasks". The first is to "prolong the war, allowing him to continue using it as an excuse to avoid accountability". The second: to "prevent the break-up of his government" and set himself for an election that must be held before October next year.

Neither of these are served by the complete destruction of Hamas, which means, ironically, its greatest hope of retaining control of Gaza may well lie with Netanyahu himself.