The future for Hamas under Yahya Sinwar

In the aftermath of the 7 October attacks in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu declared that "every Hamas leader is a dead man".

The prime minister vowed to kill the three top members of the militant group he held responsible for the atrocities, in which 1,200 Israelis died: Qatar-based political leader Ismail Haniyeh; leader of Hamas's military wing Mohammed Deif; and Yahya Sinwar; the leader of Hamas in Gaza. 

Haniyeh was killed in a rocket strike in Tehran last week – with all fingers pointed at Israel as the culprit. Days later, Israel announced that Deif had been killed in Gaza in July. Hamas has not confirmed Deif's death, but in a show of defiance, the group has announced Sinwar, the last survivor, as its new political leader.

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Who is Yahya Sinwar?

Sinwar is seen as the mastermind of the 7 October attacks and one of the militant group's "most influential leaders", said The New York Times, "wielding outsize power while remaining mostly hidden in tunnels beneath Gaza". 

He was born in a Gaza refugee camp in 1962, and has spent at least 22 years of his adult life in Israeli prisons, learning Hebrew and studying Israeli culture. He founded the Hamas security service known as al-Majd, with which he hunted down Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel – leading to the nickname "the Butcher of Khan Yunis". He has since built up the group's military strength, helping to establish the armed wing known as the Qassam Brigades.

In 1989, he was sentenced to life in prison for killing two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians. But he was released in 2011, along with more than 1,000 Palestinian and Israeli Arab prisoners, in a highly controversial exchange for one captive Israeli soldier. Sinwar was designated a "global terrorist" by the US in 2015, and two years later appointed head of Hamas's political bureau in Gaza. 

Sinwar, 61, is one of several Hamas leaders whose arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court over allegations of war crimes. A top target of Israel, he has managed to evade assassination by rarely appearing in public. 

What does his selection mean for Hamas?

Despite his importance, "few would have expected Sinwar to be the group's next leader", said Hugh Lovatt at the European Council on Foreign Relations. But the death of Haniyeh, a relative moderate, has "tipped the group into a more hardline direction", he told  The Associated Press.

Hamas's selection of this "secretive figure close to Iran" is "likely to provoke Israel". It comes at a "volatile moment" with Iran vowing revenge for the rocket strike on its soil, and for the Israeli assassination of a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon hours earlier. Iran and Hezbollah have both praised Sinwar's appointment. 

It also signals that Hamas leadership in Gaza has "taken over" from overseas leadership, which the group has traditionally used to navigate relations with foreign allies. Sinwar's appointment "puts Gaza front and centre", Nour Odeh, a Palestinian political analyst, told Al Jazeera. "And it really sends a signal, as far as negotiations of a ceasefire is concerned, that Gaza calls the shots."

What does his selection mean for Gaza?

His selection, "seen as a victory for hardliners", will "further complicate" the war, said Sky News. His appointment will "likely go down badly with Qatar", where some exiled Hamas officials are based – and which is mediating the ceasefire negotiations.

Sinwar "has been and remains the primary decider when it comes to concluding the ceasefire", said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

But the difference now is that there is no longer the "comparatively pragmatic voice" of Haniyeh to "balance Sinwar's uncompromising maximalist views", said CNBC. On a practical level, reaching Sinwar in Gaza has sometimes taken days. He often "stalls or cuts off communications during the talks". It is unclear how he will take on Haniyeh's diplomatic duties abroad.

The merging of the military and political wings of Hamas also complicates plans for a "day after" in Gaza, or a future Palestinian government.

But Israeli and US intelligence officers believe that Sinwar's strategy is to "keep the war in Gaza going for as long as it takes to shred Israel's international reputation", said The New York Times. Sinwar is "seen as less ready to concede ground to the Israeli negotiators". He knows he is "likely to be killed whether or not the war ends".