Rafah strikes: has Israel crossed the West's red lines in Gaza?

Israel's deadly air strikes on a refugee camp, in defiance of international pleas and court rulings to halt its Rafah offensive, have created a serious problem for Western allies.

The strikes killed at least 45 Palestinians and wounded dozens more in the Gazan city, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a "tragic mistake" and said his forces would investigate. 

But the graphic footage of destruction prompted a global outcry and European leaders are calling for Israel to comply with the International Court of Justice's ruling on Friday, which demanded an immediate halt to the Rafah military offensive. 

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French president Emmanuel Macron said he was "outraged" by the attack, with Italy and Germany echoing the sentiment. Canada's foreign minister said she was "horrified", while the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned the incident in "the strongest possible terms". Labour leader Keir Starmer, who has faced pressure to take a harder stance on Israel's actions in Gaza, said the scenes were "horrifying" and that he would call for an immediate ceasefire. 

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has yet to comment, but has been facing growing calls to end the UK's arms sales to Israel. The US has formally urged the Israelis to take more care to protect civilians but has so far stopped short of calling for a halt to the invasion. Washington is "still assessing" whether the strike is a violation of President Joe Biden's "red line" in opposing a Rafah offensive, White House officials told Axios.

What did the commentators say?

There have been many potential turning points in this war, said Sky's Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall, and every time Israel has remained "determinedly" on the path to destroy Hamas. Sunday's strike could be the point at which Netanyahu is "forced to turn".

The EU is preparing to issue an ultimatum that Israel comply with the ICJ's ruling, diplomats told Politico's Brussels Playbook newsletter. Israel proceeded with the offensive in Gaza by claiming the ruling allowed room for some military action. But the decision of the UN's top court means the bloc's commitment to the rule of law and its support for Israel are "quite difficult to make compatible", Borrell said – before the strikes. 

After a meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers today, sources told the news site that the EU was "preparing to act on growing unease about the humanitarian cost of Israel's military operations in Gaza". Italy's defence minister Guido Crosetto told Sky TG24 that Israel's actions were "no longer justifiable", and "with respect to Rafah, all states agreed that Israel had to stop". 

The US, Israel's staunchest ally and weapons supplier, has "spoken vehemently against the Rafah offensive", said The Telegraph, but officials recently indicated that what they had been seeing so far "does not cross their red lines".

There was also silence on the ICJ ruling, with the absence of any public statement from the Biden administration in "stark contrast" to an "almost identical ruling" in 2022 against Russia, said The Washington Post. 

However, the White House acknowledged last week that Israel is "increasingly at odds with the bulk of the international community", said Post columnist Ishaan Tharoor. It has since described the images from the aftermath of the strikes – of "charred and dismembered children" – as devastating, said The Guardian.

There is a sense that "the walls are closing in" on Netanyahu and his government, said Bunkall, that allies are "stepping back from Israel, that international institutions are gathering momentum". 

"The Israeli prime minister remains defiant, but he is losing friends, and fast."

What next?

The EU has agreed "in principle" to revive its civilian assistance mission in Rafah, which has been out of action since 2007 when Hamas seized control of Gaza, said Reuters. But diplomats have warned that the mission is unlikely to be in place before hostilities have stopped.

Today, Ireland, Norway and Spain joined nine other European nations in formally recognising Palestinian statehood for the sake of "peace in the Middle East". Ireland's prime minister Simon Harris said he was "confident" more countries would join in this "important step" in the coming weeks. Slovenia, Malta and Belgium are the other European nations considering it, according to Al Jazeera. 

The EU is considering possible measures in case Israel continues to ignore the ICJ ruling. One "obvious option" could be to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which grants Israel preferential market access to the bloc, said Politico's Brussels Playbook. 

Israel is likely to face further condemnation after the UN Security Council meets tomorrow to discuss the conflict. But what the US will choose to do is "still unclear", said Sky's Bunkall. Nevertheless, the White House position on the strikes is "likely to harden if it's found US-supplied weapons were used".

In the meantime, the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees said today that Gaza is "truly hell on Earth".