How foreign policy could decide the election

Both the Conservatives and Labour are putting an unusual emphasis on foreign policy ahead of this summer's general election.

Rishi Sunak said this week that only the Tories could be trusted with the nation's security in the face of growing danger from an "axis of authoritarian states". He has promised to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, a pledge matched by Keir Starmer, who said defence was the "number one issue" in the face of "growing Russian aggression".

Whoever wins in July will take office in an "immensely challenging environment for foreign policy", said Chatham House. From the Middle East crisis to "China's assertive global agenda" and doubts over US commitment to European security, the new government will face "pressing international problems" – with "limited resources" to tackle them.

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Where do the two parties agree?

Under Starmer, Labour has maintained a "near-united front" with the Conservative government on foreign policy, said Politico, including an "unwavering commitment to Nato and the war in Ukraine". 

If Labour wins power, there will be no change in "Britain's resolve to stand with Ukraine", shadow defence secretary John Healey said during a recent visit to Kyiv. Starmer said on Sunday that "the last thing anyone in Ukraine wants is to see political parties back in the UK squabbling about something that is life or death for them".

The next government will also have to balance vital trade and cooperation with China alongside protecting the UK from the growing threat of Chinese cyberattacks. The "friction" between Beijing and Washington also complicates the UK's relations with both, said Chatham House.

David Cameron, the now foreign secretary, is remembered for promoting the UK's relationship with China when he was prime minister, during the "golden era" of Sino-UK relations. But critics argue that his approach overlooked China's human rights abuses and military aggression in favour of the economic benefits, and left the UK vulnerable to security threats.  

Labour has previously been "less gung-ho" on a tilt towards Asia than the Conservatives, who have "sought to realise their Global Britain agenda following Brexit", said Gray Sergeant in a blog for Soas's China Institute. But now, Labour is "broadly in the same place as the Conservatives". 

Where do they differ?

Israel's bombardment of Gaza has emerged as a clear dividing line for voters. Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy's keynote speech in London this week was "dominated by the Israel-Hamas war", as protesters "popped up" from the audience to "attack Labour's position on the conflict", said Sky News.

About 56% of the UK public – and 66% of those who intend to vote Labour – support halting arms sales to Israel, according to a YouGov poll this month. And "all polling" shows that the majority of the public want the war to end, said Othman Moqbel, British-Palestinian leader of the charity Action For Humanity, at Al Jazeera. 

It is "reasonable" to assume that voters will continue to move away from politicians who appear to support Israel. But Labour, more so than the Conservatives, is battling "widespread public perception that they are supportive of Israel's war".

Labour might have "won big" at the recent local and mayoral elections, but voting trends revealed a decrease in their vote in crucial areas containing a "high number of students and Muslims". These two traditionally loyal demographics "have been clear as to why"; the party's approach to the Gaza war "has been found wanting". 

Meanwhile, independents and Green Party candidates who made their anti-war stance on Gaza "a focal point" defeated and took votes from Labour. For Labour, the war will become "an even bigger problem" in the coming months.

Will the election impact UK-US relations?

A possible second Trump presidency also sets the two UK parties apart. Labour has "historic links with the Democratic Party", said Olly Duff on the i news site, and Trump would not be Starmer's "first choice" for US president. 

But Lammy has been meeting senior figures from the Republican Party in preparation, saying Labour would look for a "common cause" with Trump. The former president's team have become "more receptive" to Starmer, "after taking umbrage" at the way Cameron "pressured" Congress to pass the £49 billion aid package for Ukraine.

Republicans also accuse Cameron of "hypocrisy" for leading "the 'panda hug' of China in the early 2010s". The "clash" between Cameron and the Republicans has "opened the door to Labour", said Duff.