What would a second Trump presidency mean for Nato?
Trump's hostility towards European leaders 'could prove fatal' for the military alliance if he wins re-election

European leaders and Nato chiefs are debating how to prepare for Donald Trump's possible return to the White House as he surges ahead in the race for the Republican nomination.
After scoring resounding victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primary contests, the former president is the clear favourite to take on Joe Biden in November's election. And crucially for Nato, he is refusing to commit to US membership of the military alliance if re-elected, after having repeatedly threatened to pull out during his first term.
As the prospect of a "Trump comeback" looms, said VoA, Emmanuel Macron has warned that Europe must be ready for whatever lies ahead. "I want a stronger Europe that can defend itself and not depend on others," the French president told reporters in Paris earlier this month.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The key question facing Europe is whether it could "fend off a Russian attack on its own", said Politico – a question that "until now has been the stuff of fiction".
What did the commentators say?
Trump's "hostility to alliances in general", and Nato in particular, "is a matter of historical record", wrote historian and academic Alfred McCoy for The Nation. And his hostility to Article 5 of Nato's founding treaty – specifying that an attack on one is an attack on all – "could prove fatal" for the Western military alliance.
Trump often spoke of defunding Nato during his presidency, while "also complimenting authoritarian leaders" who are considered "adversaries" of the alliance, said CNN. He also "trashed the assumption" that war was unlikely and that, were the "worst to happen" to European countries, the US would "rush to their aid" – an assumption that led European nations to have "underfunded their militaries for decades".
Thierry Breton, the EU's internal market commissioner, revealed earlier this month that Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that "the US would not help Europe if it was attacked".
Having once labelled Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine as "genius", Trump would in his second term "undoubtedly simply abandon Ukraine", said McCoy on The Nation, and the negotiations that he would force Ukraine into "would be tantamount to surrender". Indeed, a Trump "tilt toward Putin could swing a wrecking ball" through Nato.
Trump's return to the White House could "severely disrupt the West's tightly aligned policy on Ukraine", said Euronews, and damage its "renewed sense of purpose" since Russia's invasion.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo recently warned the European Parliament that Trump could leave Europe "on its own" and that the continent should "embrace" the opportunity to put Europe on a more solid footing.
What next?
"Trump-proofing is hard," said CNN. The former president presents "quite a unique threat", in that the US is not a hostile state like China or Russia. Europe ordinarily uses economic sanctions or increased military presence in the face of such threats, but neither would be "appropriate or necessary against the US". Diplomatic action is also "tricky", as Trump's "thin-skinned nature means any criticism risks a massive overreaction".
An official told CNN that "last time", Europe "spent so much time scrambling to respond every time Trump blurted out whatever thought has just dropped into his head". Another diplomat added that "Brussels cannot get distracted … nor can it pay too much attention" if Trump teases the idea of ending US support for Ukraine. Nato needs to "be mature and carry on", because Europe will bear the consequences, not America, the insider added.
Diplomats have concluded that the best way to handle a second Trump term is to "stay calm and keep plugging away" at distancing Europe from America, said CNN. But the trouble is that "it will take years, maybe decades, to end its reliance" on its ally.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Keumars Afifi-Sabet is a freelance writer at The Week Digital, and is the technology editor on Live Science, another Future Publishing brand. He was previously features editor with ITPro, where he commissioned and published in-depth articles around a variety of areas including AI, cloud computing and cybersecurity. As a writer, he specialises in technology and current affairs. In addition to The Week Digital, he contributes to Computeractive and TechRadar, among other publications.
-
Today's political cartoons - March 16, 2025
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - head games, skyfall, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 explosively funny cartoons about Musk's faulty spacecrafts
Cartoons Artists take on trading up, blowing up, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Russia's spies: skulduggery in Great Yarmouth
In the Spotlight 'Amateurish' spy ring in Norfolk seaside town exposes the decline of Russian intelligence
By The Week UK Published
-
J.D. Vance: Trump's attack dog
In the Spotlight The 'hillbilly in the White House' is used to being the odd one out in a room
By The Week UK Published
-
Is Donald Trump a Russian agent?
The Explainer 'We have to consider the possibility that President Trump is a Russian asset' former Tory minister Graham Stuart tweeted last week. Do we?
By The Week UK Published
-
Trump's military makeover: fewer rules, more violence
IN THE SPOTLIGHT The president and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have begun dramatically rewriting the guidelines for armed forces' operations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump pulls nomination of anti-vax CDC pick
Speed Read Former Florida congressmen Dr. Dave Weldon was nominated to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Judges tell Trump to rehire fired federal workers
Speed Read Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE team face a big setback in their efforts to shrink the federal workforce
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How feasible is a Ukraine ceasefire?
Today's Big Question Kyiv has condemned Putin's 'manipulative' response to proposed agreement
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Is America heading toward competitive authoritarianism?
Today's Big Question Some experts argue that the country's current democratic system is fading
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'Detention centers have, for decades, been an abuse of administrative power'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published