What would a second Trump presidency mean for Nato?

European leaders and Nato chiefs are debating how to prepare for Donald Trump's possible return to the White House as he surges ahead in the race for the Republican nomination. 

After scoring resounding victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primary contests, the former president is the clear favourite to take on Joe Biden in November's election. And crucially for Nato, he is refusing to commit to US membership of the military alliance if re-elected, after having repeatedly threatened to pull out during his first term.

As the prospect of a "Trump comeback" looms, said VoA, Emmanuel Macron has warned that Europe must be ready for whatever lies ahead. "I want a stronger Europe that can defend itself and not depend on others," the French president told reporters in Paris earlier this month.

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The key question facing Europe is whether it could "fend off a Russian attack on its own", said Politico – a question that "until now has been the stuff of fiction". 

What did the commentators say?

Trump's "hostility to alliances in general", and Nato in particular, "is a matter of historical record", wrote historian and academic Alfred McCoy for The Nation. And his hostility to Article 5 of Nato's founding treaty – specifying that an attack on one is an attack on all – "could prove fatal" for the Western military alliance.  

Trump often spoke of defunding Nato during his presidency, while "also complimenting authoritarian leaders" who are considered "adversaries" of the alliance, said CNN. He also "trashed the assumption" that war was unlikely and that, were the "worst to happen" to European countries, the US would "rush to their aid" – an assumption that led European nations to have "underfunded their militaries for decades".

Thierry Breton, the EU's internal market commissioner, revealed earlier this month that Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that "the US would not help Europe if it was attacked".

Having once labelled Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine as "genius", Trump would in his second term "undoubtedly simply abandon Ukraine", said McCoy on The Nation, and the negotiations that he would force Ukraine into "would be tantamount to surrender". Indeed, a Trump "tilt toward Putin could swing a wrecking ball" through Nato.

Trump's return to the White House could "severely disrupt the West's tightly aligned policy on Ukraine", said Euronews, and damage its "renewed sense of purpose" since Russia's invasion.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo recently warned the European Parliament that Trump could leave Europe "on its own" and that the continent should "embrace" the opportunity to put Europe on a more solid footing. 

What next?

"Trump-proofing is hard," said CNN. The former president presents "quite a unique threat", in that the US is not a hostile state like China or Russia. Europe ordinarily uses economic sanctions or increased military presence in the face of such threats, but neither would be "appropriate or necessary against the US". Diplomatic action is also "tricky", as Trump's "thin-skinned nature means any criticism risks a massive overreaction". 

An official told CNN that "last time", Europe "spent so much time scrambling to respond every time Trump blurted out whatever thought has just dropped into his head". Another diplomat added that "Brussels cannot get distracted … nor can it pay too much attention" if Trump teases the idea of ending US support for Ukraine. Nato needs to "be mature and carry on", because Europe will bear the consequences, not America, the insider added.

Diplomats have concluded that the best way to handle a second Trump term is to "stay calm and keep plugging away" at distancing Europe from America, said CNN. But the trouble is that "it will take years, maybe decades, to end its reliance" on its ally.