Russia vs. Nato: who would win?

Germany's military intelligence believes that Russia could launch a full-scale assault on Nato by the end of the decade. An assessment jointly produced by the Federal Intelligence Service and the army, and seen by several German media outlets, said that Russia "increasingly views the West as a 'systemic enemy' and is rebuilding its military capacity with long-term confrontation in mind", said UK Defence Journal.

German officials say the Russian navy and air force remain at high readiness, with Russian land forces ready to be redeployed in the Baltic once the war in Ukraine ends.

Later this year, Germany will host a huge Nato exercise based on a scenario that "envisages an attack from Russia," said the Kyiv Post. The war games will include mass movement of Nato troops who "must be quickly transferred from Western Europe to the eastern flank: the Baltic States and Poland".

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Nato's military power

A mutual assistance clause sits at the heart of the security alliance, which was formed in 1949 with the aim of countering the risk of a Soviet attack on allied territory. Article 5 of Nato's North Atlantic Treaty says that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all member states.

In his first term, Donald Trump repeatedly criticised member states for failing to meet their defence spending obligations, and he has ramped up criticism of the alliance since returning to the White House. The US is by far Nato's biggest player and spends almost as much on defence as the next 10 spenders in the world combined. Its total in 2023 was about $916 billion (£715 billion), according to Statista – nearly 40% of the total military spending worldwide that year. The UK sits in sixth place, with spending of $74.9 billion (£60 billion).

While members have been slow to hit the Nato guideline of spending 2% of their GDP on defence, they have finally woken up to the threat posed by Russia and begun to boost defence allocations.

Nato's resources have also been bolstered by the accession of two new member states since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine: Finland, which joined in April 2023, and Sweden, which was admitted in March 2024 after a two-year struggle to overcome vetoes from Hungary and Turkey.

While both have large defence industries and advance military capabilities, the biggest contribution the two new members bring to the table is "geostrategic", said the US Institute of Peace think-tank, their location shoring up the alliance's exposed northeastern flank and shielding the Baltic states, regarded as most vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Collectively, the 32 members of Nato can field a "powerful, and modern fighting force," said Kyiv Independent, "but – its European contingent at least – faces ammunition shortages, a fragmented defence industry, and insufficient air defence coverage".

There is also the question of how Nato's untested "mutual assistance" agreement would play out in the event of an attack by Russia on a member state.

The latest German intelligence assessment "suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured", said UK Defence Journal.

Russia's military power

Despite international sanctions and its well-publicised struggles in Ukraine, Russia has "accelerated its military production", said the defence news site. Military spending has surged to an estimated €120 billion (£103 billion) in 2025 – equivalent to over 6% of GDP – nearly quadrupling the country's 2021 defence budget.

The German intelligence service and army "believe the Russian war economy is generating more output than is required solely for operations in Ukraine", suggesting it could be preparing for a wider confrontation.

Putin last week launched Russia's biggest conscription drive in over a decade, as he looks to boost the number of active servicemen to 1.5 million. While this would give Russia a bigger army than the US alone, it still falls well behind Nato's collective might. According to Statista, Nato has 3,439,197 active soldiers. Russia has only about 4,957 military aircraft compared with Nato's combined 22,377, and 339 military ships compared to Nato's 1,143. Russia is decisively outnumbered by Nato for tanks (5,750 to 11,495), and in terms of armoured vehicles overall its stock of 131,527 is dwarfed by Nato's 971,280.

The two forces are evenly matched in terms of known nuclear capability, with the Nato nuclear powers – the US, UK and France – able to field 5,559 nuclear warheads to Russia's 5,580.

Russia's war economy has so far remained remarkably resilient in the face of Western sanctions. This has allowed its "military-industrial complex to churn out tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, missiles, ammunition and artillery pieces," although "it still cannot keep up with battlefield losses", said Al Jazeera.

Who would win then?

Despite small signs of improvement, "Russia is in no shape to take on Nato", with the alliance having been "revitalised" by the invasion of Ukraine, said Al Jazeera.

Even without the US, the collective military capability of Nato members is "formidable", said George Allison in The Telegraph.

"The technological sophistication and interoperability of Nato forces significantly amplify their combat effectiveness." The alliance's "strength resides in its ability to leverage cutting-edge technology and integrated command structures to conduct operations adaptable to the battlefield’s rapidly changing circumstances".

With an integrated command structure developed over decades, better trained and equipped troops and the "notable difference in the quality of Western weapons, all this adds up to the conclusion that Nato would quickly prevail in any conventional war against Russia", said Al Jazeera.

Yet herein lies the "danger": that "a series of defeats might force Moscow to use tactical nuclear weapons or face total defeat".