What does Israel hope to gain from Rafah offensive?

Israel pounded the southern Gazan city of Rafah with air strikes this week, ahead of the anticipated launch of a ground offensive there. PM Benjamin Netanyahu is facing intense international pressure not to send tanks into the city, where about 1.5 million of the Strip's 2.3 million residents have sought refuge, but said he was ready to defy it. 

On Monday, Israel announced that it had rescued two of the hostages seized by Hamas on 7 October, during what it described as a "complex operation" in Rafah; 74 Palestinians were killed, Hamas said.

President Biden warned that a ground assault on Rafah would be "a disaster" without a "credible" plan to protect civilians. The UN said that any operation there risked cutting the flow of aid into Gaza (Rafah is home to the Strip's only crossing into Egypt). Last week, Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire deal with Hamas, insisting that "total victory" was possible within months. Negotiations have since resumed in Cairo.

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What did the commentators say?

It's hard to believe that life could get worse for Palestinians in Gaza, said The Guardian's editorial – but there's every sign that it soon will. Rafah's population has increased fivefold since the war began, as desperate Gazans have flocked to its relative safety. Now, those people face having to flee again. Israel says it will help facilitate this; but in reality, there's "nowhere safe" to go. Israel's offensive has not only killed an estimated 28,000 people, it has destroyed vast swathes of Gaza, and the infrastructure residents of those areas would need to survive.

We should welcome the extraction of the two hostages from Rafah, said Haaretz's editorial – but the government must push for a deal that would free the other 134. Still, Netanyahu was always going to reject Hamas's latest terms, said The Times's editorial: by giving the group time to re-arm, the deal could have facilitated a repeat of 7 October. Concern for the people of Gaza is rightly intense, but the Israeli PM can't afford to let the fanatics of Hamas get away with their crimes: for a country that relies largely on deterrence for its security, that would be a "fatal admission of weakness".

Israel has little choice but to take on Hamas forces in Rafah if it is to remove the group from power, said Limor Simhony Philpott in The Spectator. IDF intelligence suggests that four of Hamas's six remaining battalions are embedded in the city; and the border between Gaza and Egypt is the site of many of its remaining tunnels. For his part, Netanyahu may be hoping that the threat of a ground offensive will be enough to pressure Hamas into improving the terms of a hostage deal, said Amos Harel in Haaretz. Equally, he may think it plays well with his shrinking support base. Or perhaps he is "preparing an alibi". He keeps talking about "total victory", but Israel is nowhere close to achieving that. By threatening to ramp up the conflict, he is giving himself cover to blame, say, the Americans for his likely failure, because they "piled up obstacles to victory", or the generals who resisted launching a massive invasion of Rafah.

In the meantime, international anger with Israel is spilling into the open, said Peter Beaumont in The Guardian. EU leaders have suggested that Israel's allies stop arming the country if it can't limit civilian deaths; Biden has reportedly started referring to Netanyahu (whom he has known for decades) as an "asshole". Israel's allies are right to be angry, said Michael Wahid Hanna in the FT. Rafah is already the "epicentre of one of this century's worst humanitarian crises": tents occupy every patch of unused land; essential supplies are scarce. To extend Israel's operation would be to "worsen the catastrophe exponentially". Netanyahu thinks he can destroy Hamas by striking its battalions in Rafah, said William Hague in The Times. That's nonsense. Hamas may share some characteristics with an army, but it's more like an insurgency. Its units can be destroyed, but it will soon re-emerge from the rubble – with "more recruits than ever before". An offensive in Rafah won't give Netanyahu the victory he wants; it'll only worsen the suffering of Gazans, further alienate Israel's allies, and "diminish the security of Israel in the longer term".

What next?

Israel and Hamas were making progress this week towards a deal to facilitate a ceasefire and free hostages held in Gaza, reports The Guardian. Negotiations were reported to be focused on agreeing a six-week ceasefire with guarantees that all parties would then continue talks about a permanent ceasefire.

The IDF has warned that a civilian evacuation of Rafah could take weeks, says Anshel Pfeffer in The Times; and that this could mean the military operation being launched during Ramadan, which begins on 10 March – an outcome the IDF is keen to avoid.