Is an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal possible after the war?

Even as war rages between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, some officials are pondering what comes afterward. The New York Times reported that Secretary of State Antony Blinken hopes for a "sustained peace" that resolves the seemingly unending Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That peace "must include Palestinian-led governance and Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority," he said this week at the G7 meeting in Tokyo. But Blinken made his call without explaining how the warring parties might overcome "pressing obstacles."

One of those obstacles: Israel's leaders aren't quite sure what should come next. The Associated Press reported that Benny Gantz, a member of the country's war cabinet, "acknowledged that Israel does not yet have a vision for the Gaza Strip after its war against Hamas ends." Once the fighting stops "we will settle down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza," Gantz said. But, he added: "I do not know what it will be."

Still, The Economist noted, some leaders see the conflict as a new opportunity "to revive the comatose Israeli-Palestinian peace process." Western leaders — President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron — believe that any plan for the "day after" the Gaza war ends "needs to consider the possibility of a two-state solution." But there is a lot of fighting that will be done between now and then. "For now, that is a far-off dream."

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What the commentators said

"As dark as things seem, the war in Gaza could end up restarting the peace process," Tony Klug argued at The Guardian. From the  "ashes of the present wretchedness," it's possible to see a path to progress between Israel and Palestine. One sign of hope: "Every peaceable advance since 1967 has been provoked by an unforeseen seismic event." The Yom Kippur War led to the Israel-Egypt peace treaty; the first Palestinian intifada ended with the 1993 Oslo Accords. "It is possible that the current outrage will track the same pattern."

"The costs of an unresolved Israel-Palestine conflict are exorbitant," Eric Levitz added at New York. Since Israelis and Palestinians began discussing the possibility of a two-state solution during the 1990s, "the prospects for peace have only dimmed." But there is "some basis" to hope the current conflict will lead Israeli leaders to re-engage the peace process. For one thing, the failure of the right-wing government to prevent Hamas' Oct. 7 attack could lead to a new more moderate government. But those hopes are still distant. "At the moment, any proposal for peacefully resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict can look hopelessly naïve."

"All previous wars between Israel and Hamas have ended up with the status quo ante," Brent E. Sasley wrote at Politico. And neither side seems prepared to break old habits. Any move toward peace would require Israel to halt West Bank settlements and to remove its longstanding blockade on Gaza; Hamas would have to "end its commitment to violence and improve governance of Gaza." Will that happen? "The sheer number of deaths" on both sides might force an unlikely resolution.

What next?

There may be some hope. The Palestinian Authority, which administers the semiautonomous areas of the West Bank, said Thursday it is open to helping govern postwar Gaza "if the United States commits to a full-fledged two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," The New York Times reported. That message is "a relief and a challenge" to U.S. officials as they seek an endgame in the conflict. 

"I believe that the chances for negotiating peace today is paradoxically bigger than just a month ago," Yossi Beilin, an Israeli who helped devise the Oslo process, told NPR. Along with Hiba Husseini, a former legal adviser to Palestinian peace negotiators, he is promoting the "Holy Land Confederation" — a two-state solution that would allow free movement between Israel and Palestinian-controlled areas. The pair believe the "urgency in addressing this conflict" creates the possibility for a lasting peace. "I mean," said Husseini, "what's the other option, really?"