Why NATO, Ukraine are nervous about a second Trump presidency
A 'radical reorientation' of U.S. policy is possible


Europe is watching the 2024 presidential election closely, wondering how Donald Trump would handle the Ukraine War and the future of NATO in a second term.
Trump has promised he would "stop the war 24 hours after being elected," Angela Stent said at the Brookings Institution. Though he has "not shared any details" about how to stop the war or how to get Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, he has suggested that lifting Russian sanctions will be part of the deal. "What I'll do is I'll speak to one, I'll speak to the other, I'll get them together," Trump said during the September presidential debate. Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, has "been much more explicitly anti-Ukraine," Stent said, calling for an immediate end to U.S. military assistance to that country.
The former president kept NATO on its heels during his first presidency, and signs are he would do it again in a second term. In February, Trump said the United States would not defend NATO countries that don't meet their defense spending targets, according to The Associated Press. "Look, if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect. OK?" Trump said at a rally.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Ukraine: 'It has to end'
Trump did meet with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy in September, said NBC News, promising again to end the war. "It has to end," Trump said. "At some point, it has to end." But when asked how he would work to end the war, he was once again short on details. It's "too early to say that," he said. Zelenskyy appears to be skeptical. "The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine's expense is unacceptable," the Ukrainian president said to The New Yorker.
Trump has held an "escalating political grudge" against Ukraine since early in his first presidency, believing that the country's leaders favored Democrats. Overall, he has pushed the GOP toward a "vision of a less interventionist" foreign policy, said The New York Times. It's a vision that is more reluctant to come to the aid of countries like Ukraine — and more open to authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin. His first administration "included Russia hawks," said the Times. "It is not clear" that would be the case in a second term.
NATO: A 'radical reorientation'
Many observers believe it's a "question of when, not whether" Trump would lead the United States out of NATO, Michael Hirsh said at Politico. But Trump is "unlikely to quit NATO outright." Instead, he would probably work for what one observer called a "radical reorientation" of NATO — continuing to keep the American nuclear umbrella over Europe but handing responsibility for the "bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery" to the European allies, Hirsh said. Instead of being the "primary provider of combat power in Europe," said defense expert Dan Caldwell, who is linked to Trump's circle, the United States would be "somebody who provides support only in times of crisis."
That's why Europe should plan for a "post-America NATO" in a second Trump term, Phillips P. O'Brien and Edward Stringer said at Foreign Affairs. The alliance would be "mortally undermined" by even an "incomplete U.S. withdrawal." But without U.S. leadership, it's unclear which country would step forward. "There is no natural leader for the rest to converge upon."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Trinidadian doubles recipe
The Week Recommends 'Dangerously addictive', this traditional Caribbean street food is the height of finger-licking goodness
By Rebekah Evans, The Week UK
-
Labour and the so-called 'banter ban'
Talking Point Critics are claiming that a clause in the new Employment Rights Bill will spell the end of free-flowing pub conversation
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK
-
Andor series two: a 'perfect' Star Wars show
The Week Recommends Second instalment of Tony Gilroy's 'compelling' spin-off is a triumph
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK
-
Climate: Trump's attempt to bring back coal
Feature Trump rolls back climate policies with executive orders aimed at reviving the coal industry
By The Week US
-
Trump's budget: Gutting Medicaid to pass tax cuts?
Feature To extend Trump's tax cuts, the GOP is looking to cut Medicaid and other assistance programs
By The Week US
-
Conspiracy theorists circle again following RFK file release
The Explainer Both RFK and his brother, President John F. Kennedy, have been the subjects of conspiracies
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Trump tariffs place trucking industry in the crosshairs
IN THE SPOTLIGHT As the White House barrels ahead with its massive tariff project, American truckers are feeling the heat from a global trade war
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Trump stands by Hegseth amid ouster reports
Speed Read The president dismissed reports that he was on the verge of firing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over a second national security breach
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Corruption: The road to crony capitalism
Feature Trump's tariff pause sent the stock market soaring — was it insider trading?
By The Week US
-
How 'China shock 2.0' will roil global markets
Feature An overflow of Chinese goods is flooding the global market. Tariffs won’t stop it.
By The Week US
-
Retribution: Trump calls for prosecution of critics
Feature Trump targets former officials who spoke out against him, sending a warning to future whistleblowers
By The Week US