Why NATO, Ukraine are nervous about a second Trump presidency

Europe is watching the 2024 presidential election closely, wondering how Donald Trump would handle the Ukraine War and the future of NATO in a second term.

Trump has promised he would "stop the war 24 hours after being elected," Angela Stent said at the Brookings Institution. Though he has "not shared any details" about how to stop the war or how to get Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, he has suggested that lifting Russian sanctions will be part of the deal. "What I'll do is I'll speak to one, I'll speak to the other, I'll get them together," Trump said during the September presidential debate. Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, has "been much more explicitly anti-Ukraine," Stent said, calling for an immediate end to U.S. military assistance to that country.

The former president kept NATO on its heels during his first presidency, and signs are he would do it again in a second term. In February, Trump said the United States would not defend NATO countries that don't meet their defense spending targets, according to The Associated Press. "Look, if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect. OK?" Trump said at a rally.

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Ukraine: 'It has to end'

Trump did meet with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy in September, said NBC News, promising again to end the war. "It has to end," Trump said. "At some point, it has to end." But when asked how he would work to end the war, he was once again short on details. It's "too early to say that," he said. Zelenskyy appears to be skeptical. "The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine's expense is unacceptable," the Ukrainian president said to The New Yorker.

Trump has held an "escalating political grudge" against Ukraine since early in his first presidency, believing that the country's leaders favored Democrats. Overall, he has pushed the GOP toward a "vision of a less interventionist" foreign policy, said The New York Times. It's a vision that is more reluctant to come to the aid of countries like Ukraine — and more open to authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin. His first administration "included Russia hawks," said the Times. "It is not clear" that would be the case in a second term.

NATO: A 'radical reorientation'

Many observers believe it's a "question of when, not whether" Trump would lead the United States out of NATO, Michael Hirsh said at Politico. But Trump is "unlikely to quit NATO outright." Instead, he would probably work for what one observer called a "radical reorientation" of NATO — continuing to keep the American nuclear umbrella over Europe but handing responsibility for the "bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery" to the European allies, Hirsh said. Instead of being the "primary provider of combat power in Europe," said defense expert Dan Caldwell, who is linked to Trump's circle, the United States would be "somebody who provides support only in times of crisis."

That's why Europe should plan for a "post-America NATO" in a second Trump term, Phillips P. O'Brien and Edward Stringer said at Foreign Affairs. The alliance would be "mortally undermined" by even an "incomplete U.S. withdrawal." But without U.S. leadership, it's unclear which country would step forward. "There is no natural leader for the rest to converge upon."