What are the lessons from Ukraine's Russia incursion?
And what do they mean for Putin's red lines?


The best defense is a good offense. At least, that's what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems to think. His country's shocking incursion into the Kursk region of Russia is part of a "victory plan" designed to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table after two years of war, said the BBC. "It may sound too ambitious for some," Zelenskyy told a news conference this week, "but it is an important plan for us."
"Ukraine has scrambled assumptions with its push into Kursk," Max Boot said at The Washington Post. Putin had long vowed that any threat to Russia's territorial integrity would be crossing a "red line" that could end with the use of nuclear weapons — and possibly the outbreak of World War III. That, in turn, prompted U.S. President Joe Biden to put limits on U.S. aid to Ukraine. Now? Putin is acting as though it's "it's business as usual for the Kremlin" even though Ukraine has captured 500 square miles of Russian land. Maybe those red lines are "not as menacing as President Joe Biden seems to imagine."
'Far short of nuclear escalation'
"Did Ukraine just call Putin's nuclear bluff?" Joshua Keating said at Vox. Kyiv's leaders "likely hoped to send a message" that American and European allies have been "overly cautious" about crossing Putin's red lines. Moscow has launched missile and drone barrages at Ukraine in response. That's "far short of the nuclear escalation" that Putin had threatened. Zelenskyy's argument now is that Western leaders can become "much more aggressive" in helping Ukraine win the war.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But there may be a reason Russia hasn't responded more aggressively. "Its own invaders are busy," said The New York Times. Putin's failure to repel the incursion isn't just a "matter of personnel and lack of battlefield intelligence" — it's also about priorities. And for Russia, that priority is capturing the city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine's Donbas region. Since Ukraine's incursion earlier this month, Russia's "steady gains near Pokrovsk have, if anything, picked up." The incursion is important to Russia's leaders, but it is also seen as a diversion from the real battle. "If you throw everything you've got to Kursk," said a former Russian diplomat, "then you are playing the Ukrainian game."
'Symbolic and psychological significance'
Ukraine going on offense has done "little to alter the fundamental dynamics of the conflict," Macalester College's Andrew Latham said at The Hill. Russia simply has more troops and armaments. That means "every soldier, tank and piece of artillery" Ukraine uses in Russia is a "loss" to efforts to free its own captured territories. And Putin could still choose the path of escalation if the incursion is prolonged. "It is a dangerous game of chicken."
The incursion has "symbolic and psychological significance" that Ukraine can use to defeat Russia, Adam Borowski said at The Kyiv Post. It's more than land and strategic positioning that's at stake: There's also "Russian imperial pride." And when the "daunting task" of negotiating an end to the war arrives, Ukraine will be able to do so from a "position of strength." That makes the operation a "symbol on which to build Ukraine's future."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Trump reignites Jan. 6 furor by awarding military honors to killed rioter
IN THE SPOTLIGHT With military funeral honors for Ashli Babbitt, the president makes good on campaign promises designed to animate his political base while relitigating history
-
'Is it OK to be happy when the world is falling apart?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Will online age checks doom internet freedom?
Today's Big Question Or do they protect children from harm?
-
Truck drivers are questioning the Trump administration's English mandate
Talking Points Some have praised the rules, others are concerned they could lead to profiling
-
Pomp but little progress at Trump's Ukraine talks
Feature Trump's red carpet welcoming for Putin did little to advance a peace deal with Ukraine
-
'It's hard to discern what it actually means'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Gavin Newsom's Trump-style trolling roils critics while thrilling fans
TALKING POINTS The California governor has turned his X account into a cutting parody of Trump's digital cadence, angering Fox News conservatives
-
Costco is at the center of an abortion debate
Talking Points The decision to no longer stock the abortion pill came following a pressure campaign by conservatives
-
Trump warms to Kyiv security deal in summit
Speed Read Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Trump's support for guaranteeing his country's security 'a major step forward'
-
Ukraine, European leaders to meet Trump after Putin talks
Speed Read Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week
-
Jonathan Powell: who is the man behind Keir Starmer's foreign policy?
Today's Big Question Prime minister's national security adviser is a 'world-class operator'