Why would Rishi Sunak call an election now?

Rishi Sunak looks set to announce a snap summer general election at any moment.

The next national vote has to be held by 28 January 2025, but the prime minister has so far refused to put a date in the diary. He is expected to do so this afternoon after the Tories, who aim to make the economy the "centrepiece" of their election campaign, "trumpeted" new data showing that inflation had fallen to 2.3%, said The Times. 

But "an election poses a major risk for a prime minister who is consistently 20 points behind in the polls".

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What did the commentators say?

Speculation about the next election's timing has "dominated Westminster in recent weeks", said Bloomberg, "but it stepped up a gear" after data showed inflation had dropped close to the Bank of England's 2% target.

Sunak said he hoped the "major milestone" gave people "confidence that if we stick to the plan there are brighter days ahead".

Senior Tories told the Financial Times that the PM could now "go to the country claiming that prices were under control and that growth was returning, offering a 'narrow path to victory'".

Yet the latest inflation rate was higher than the 2.1% expected by many economists, said the London Evening Standard, and a June interest rate cut is now less likely. "A succession of interest rate cuts will always have been inked into Downing Street's plan for a recovery in popularity in the run-up to the election." 

But perhaps now that this has been "effectively taken away", Sunak concluded there is "not much to be gained from waiting".

What next?

If the polls are right, Sunak has a lot of work to do in his election campaign. The Tories have trailed behind Labour for more than two years. And although a recent Ipsos poll provided Sunak with some cause for optimism, with Labour's lead falling to 21 points from 25 the previous month, there is still a long way to go to close the gap.

Even news that the "economic outlook is finally looking brighter seems to have come too late", said Politico. "For his Conservatives facing down the barrel of an expected wipeout at a general election expected this fall, it's no longer about the economy, stupid."