UK-US trade deal: can Keir Starmer trust Donald Trump?

There is a "good chance" that the UK and the US could reach a "great" trade agreement, said US Vice President J.D. Vance in an interview with UnHerd. Donald Trump "really loves the United Kingdom".

Of course, the UK has heard this story before but there might be some substance to Vance's overtures, with a White House official telling The Telegraph that an agreement is expected "soon". "Two weeks," he said, before adding, "Or maybe three."

"While this would be a win" for Keir Starmer, said The Spectator, "questions remain over the substance". What would be included in the deal? And, perhaps most importantly, "can we really believe it will happen?"

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What did the commentators say?

In this post-Brexit world, "an ambitious US-UK economic alliance would not only boost economic growth and prosperity, steering the economy away from recession; it would also be an almost unimaginable political prize for the prime minister himself," said The Independent. Starmer would "achieve what eluded all of his immediate Conservative predecessors". And, with only "the most modest" EU reset in sight, the US deal is "the best prospect available among major economies," especially as efforts with China have "yielded relatively little".

But what kind of "deal" is on the table? asked the BBC's Faisal Islam. Talks this time round have focused on science, tech, and AI cooperation, all "in return for avoiding tariffs". The US has also wanted to talk about the UK's "tech tax" on mainly US digital companies, and has raised issues about the Online Safety Act. Yet Britain faces a 10% "reciprocal tariff" and a 25% levy on cars, despite there being "no US trade deficit". The UK side, therefore, "has much to complain about".

Some sort of agreement may be "in the foothills" but to call this a "trade deal" would be "misleading", said Sky News' Mark Stone. It's more accurately "an 'economic deal' to reduce the tariffs". Still, any agreement would mark "a large step forward for the UK, which has been trying to engage America in closer trade alignment since Brexit".

But some in Westminster "are angsty about any compromises that may be offered up to Trump – or demanded by him" in return for a deal, said Politico's Andrew McDonald. Particularly worrisome is "any move to make it easier for US farmers to sell in the UK". That would be likely to anger British farmers, "who’ve already shown their willingness to storm Whitehall in their tractors".

What next?

Deal or not, let's not "lose sight of the big picture as Trump sees it", said Martin Kettle in The Guardian. Trump's tariff war "aims to obliterate" the global trade system and replace it with "a world trade order based on might is right, as represented by the US".

For Britain, therefore, "a free trade agreement with Trump's US can only be fundamentally defensive. It should be seen as a way of protecting British trade interests." And it is "not the key to unlocking UK prosperity".

Starmer will host an EU-UK summit in London on 19 May, as he "seeks to ease trade barriers with Brussels", said The Times. Experts have cautioned that, by aligning more closely with Brussels, Britain risks being drawn into Trump's trade war with the EU. In the meantime, negotiations with the US continue.