Badenoch, Johnson or 'full Trump': who is the future of the Tory Party?

As the Conservatives face a likely general election defeat following 14 years in power, some are already wondering who might be tasked with reversing the party's fortunes after polling day.

With Rishi Sunak's Tories lagging far behind Labour in the polls, more than 50 Conservative MPs have already said they will step down at the next election. But across the numerous remaining Tory factions, the battle for control of the party's future is stepping up. 

What did the commentators say?

In the public mind, the Sunak family are "already booked on a one-way first-class flight to California early next year," wrote Adam Boulton for Reaction. Opinion polling for the Conservatives is now "so dire" that being "only" 5% behind in some rural areas is being hailed as "good news" among the party faithful. 

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In the event of a big election defeat, "big changes in the party are a certainty". And even if the Conservatives did miraculously manage to retain power, the in-fighting is unlikely to stop. "The Tories have developed such a taste for their own blood – five leaders in eight years – that the factional wars will wage on, win or lose," said Boulton.

The party's next leadership election will almost certainly take place after the general election, agreed Stephen Bush in the Financial Times. Those looking to run will need to be a plausible candidate to the Tory right, but also someone "who doesn't prompt people in the Conservative, middle and left of the party to make a face like you've just kicked their dog when you raise the idea of them as leader". 

Even the supporters of one slated contender, former home secretary Suella Braverman, privately concede that it may be a "tall order for her to overcome the depth and breadth of opposition to her among Conservative MPs", according to Bush.

Amid fears that the right will hijack the party after the election, Tory centrists are searching for a leader who can stop the party "going full Trump", said Politico. But these so-called "One Nation" liberal Conservatives lack "an obvious leader". 

Commons leader Penny Mordaunt is thought to be "good and well-liked", but "mad on the woke stuff" – a reference to her support of trans rights – a source told Politico. James Cleverly is said to be "the obvious unity candidate", but too gaffe-prone. Tom Tugendhat would want to throw his hat in the ring only if he "felt he had a really good shot". 

The party's "perceived drift to the right" means that Kemi Badenoch is also getting a second look by moderates, who say that next to Braverman – who suggested this week that the British way of life was under assault from "Islamists" and "extremists" – Badenoch now appears to be the more liberal choice. But with just seven years as an MP under her belt, one former minister reportedly likened her to a "young Beaujolais nouveau". 

What next?

A catastrophic election defeat would tilt the party to the populist right, an analysis by The Guardian found. Seat projections suggest that if there were a further 2% swing to Labour before the election, about 40% of remaining Tory MPs would come from the right of the party. So odds are that a post-Sunak contest would  "end up as a bitterly fought battle between the party's right and centre", said the paper.

One overlooked candidate who could prove an asset to the Tory right is Priti Patel, said former MP and justice secretary David Gauke in an article for The New Statesman. If the Conservatives are defeated in the next election, the solution will be "obvious" to this wing of the party: bring back Boris Johnson and bring in Nigel Farage. 

Patel would be by far the best candidate to deliver on this strategy, said Gauke. She stuck with Johnson until the end, and is on friendly terms with Farage. And after what is likely to be an "emphatic" election loss, a "breezy message that it would be possible to bring together the big beasts of populism might be just what the modern Tory party membership wants to hear". It could be as simple as "Vote Patel, get Patel, Johnson and Farage".