Could World War III start in the Philippines?
Clashes bring U.S., China closer to conflict


Tensions are rising in the South China Sea again. Recent videos from the Philippine military showed "Chinese Coast Guard personnel ramming and boarding Philippine naval boats and confiscating their weapons," said Deutsche Welle. It's the latest in a series of frequent clashes between the two countries that observers worry could eventually spark a larger conflict involving the United States. "The risk of an accident that escalates to conflict is high," said Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
There's a risk that China and the United States — which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines — are "sleepwalking toward World War III" in the region, the Global Policy Institute's Bob Savic said in the Asia Times. China recently announced it would arrest foreign nationals in disputed waters it claims as its own; Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., meanwhile, has said he would treat the death of any of his countrymen in the encounters as an "act of war." It's easy to see how things could get out of hand, even with diplomats on both sides working to prevent escalation. "A peaceful outcome should not be taken for granted."
What did the commentators say?
"The odds of armed conflict in the South China Sea are high and rising," Derek Grossman said at Foreign Policy. China's increasingly aggressive actions have put the "Philippines in an ever-tightening stranglehold that is increasingly compromising the latter's sovereignty and territorial integrity at sea." However, neither the Philippines nor the United States seems sure how to respond. One possibility is treating "gray zone" attacks on Filipino ships — involving water cannons, lasers and boat-ramming but no weaponry — as "armed attacks" that would bring direct American intervention. The point is not to start a war but to "reestablish deterrence and lessen the risk of war in the years to come."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"The U.S. and the Philippines need to further adapt their century-old alliance to meet current threats," Richard Heydarian said at Nikkei Asia. American leaders might consider "having U.S. drones or navy frigates shadow Philippine supply convoys" to signal their commitment "without getting directly involved." The U.S. could also furnish some of its own decommissioned craft to the Philippines to boost that country's capabilities. Bottom line: "The U.S. must back up its own lofty rhetoric in support of Manila with concrete support for its besieged treaty ally."
What next?
"We are not in the business to instigate wars," Marcos said after the most recent incident, according to The Associated Press. But he added that his country would not back down from "any foreign power." The United States has also reaffirmed its support of the Philippines, asserting that China's "dangerous actions threatened regional peace and stability," said NBC News.
One bright sign? "Washington and Beijing are talking more regularly to avoid a conflict in the South China Sea," said the BBC. Observers seem to agree on two things: The rising tensions could get out of hand — and nobody actually wants that. "Our militaries are operating in very close proximity to one another in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait," said Nicholas Burns, the American ambassador to China. "You don't want to send the wrong signal."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Andor series two: a 'perfect' Star Wars show
The Week Recommends Second instalment of Tony Gilroy's 'compelling' spin-off is a triumph
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK
-
The rise and fall of 4Chan
The Explainer Most notorious messageboard on the internet appears to have posted its last meme
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK
-
Protein obsession is oversaturating the health food space
Under the Radar Some experts say that fiber is now the most important macro to focus on
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Trade war with China threatens U.S. economy
Feature Trump's tariff battle with China is hitting U.S. businesses hard and raising fears of a global recession
By The Week US
-
How 'China shock 2.0' will roil global markets
Feature An overflow of Chinese goods is flooding the global market. Tariffs won’t stop it.
By The Week US
-
How might Trump's tariffs affect the luxury goods market?
Today's Big Question Luxury clothes, cars and watches could take a hit in the coming months
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
'New firms are created to serve the economy of which they are part'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Did China sabotage British Steel?
Today's Big Question Emergency situation at Scunthorpe blast furnaces could be due to 'neglect', but caution needed, says business secretary
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK
-
Taiwan's tricky balancing act
The Explainer The island nation, no longer certain of US backing against a hostile China, is quietly looking for other solutions
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK
-
America's woes are a foreign adversary's spy recruitment dream
IN THE SPOTLIGHT As federal workers reel from mass layoffs, the United States is becoming ground zero for international adversaries eager to snatch up disgruntled spies-to-be
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Trump pauses some tariffs but ramps up China tax
Speed Read The president suspended most 'reciprocal' tariffs for 90 days and raised his tariffs for China to 125%
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US