Why would Vladimir Putin risk a Ukraine invasion? Check his 'ego,' analysts suggest.


President Biden, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and numerous other U.S. officials delivered the same dire message on Thursday: All signs point to Russia invading Ukraine within days.
"Biden and his top aides acknowledge they are risking American credibility" by constantly warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to launch a bloody, "unprovoked land war in Europe," The New York Times reports. But they say "they would rather be accused of hyperbole and fearmongering than be proven right."
Russia has maintained it has no plans to invade Ukraine, and Russian journalist Vladimir Pozner told NPR News on Tuesday that the feeling among Russians is that "Russia can win nothing by invading Ukraine," On the contrary, he said, "it can lose a lot. Not only would it be a drawn-out guerrilla warfare kind of thing, which Russia cannot really bear. It would be total destruction of any kind of respect for Russia. There's nothing to win and a lot to lose. And there are people who say that's exactly what the West wants."
On the Ukraine border, though, "most military indicators are in the red," a Western intelligence official tells The Washington Post. "It all comes down to a political decision about whether to launch an attack. The Russians are actively fabricating the casus belli."
"Putin has enough troops in place now to do what he wants to do when he wants to do it," says Politico national security editor Ben Pauker, and when assessing whether he will invade, "the word we don't hear often enough is 'ego.'"
Putin has "played the pressure/escalation game many times before in order to extend the sphere of Moscow's influence" or just "put himself back in the center of the world stage," Pauker writes. "But this time, it seems he's boxed himself into a corner: invade and suffer the consequences of international opprobrium and crippling sanctions, or pull the troops back and return home to a public that might smell weakness. I think ego is a significant part of why observers are so worried that he might actually do this, despite the consequences."
Putin's sated ego might help avert an "overt" Russian invasion, too, former U.S. NATO ambassador Douglas Lute suggested Thursday. "He enjoys this position,'' Lute told the Times. "Everyone's paying attention to him, like they haven't in years. And he feels in control."
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
What will bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table?
Today’s Big Question With diplomatic efforts stalling, the US and EU turn again to sanctions as Russian drone strikes on Poland risk dramatically escalating conflict
-
The mission to demine Ukraine
The Explainer An estimated quarter of the nation – an area the size of England – is contaminated with landmines and unexploded shells from the war
-
Ottawa Treaty: why are Russia's neighbours leaving anti-landmine agreement?
Today's Big Question Ukraine to follow Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as Nato looks to build a new ‘Iron Curtain' of millions of landmines
-
How drone warfare works
The Explainer From Ukraine to Iran, it has become clear that unmanned aircraft are rapidly revolutionising modern warfare
-
How long can Nato keep Donald Trump happy?
Today's Big Question Military alliance pulls out all the stops to woo US president on his peacemaker victory lap
-
How far would Russia go for Iran?
Today's Big Question US air strikes represent an 'embarrassment, provocation and opportunity' all rolled into one for Vladimir Putin
-
Are the UK and Russia already at war?
Today's Big Question Moscow has long been on a 'menacing' war footing with London, says leading UK defence adviser
-
Is UK's new defence plan transformational or too little, too late?
Today's Big Question Labour's 10-year strategy 'an exercise in tightly bounded ambition' already 'overshadowed by a row over money'