The clock is ticking for signs of a big GOP win in November


There are lots of reasons to believe the November elections should be great for the Republican Party: Midterms are generally kind to the out-of-power party, the president's party almost always loses seats in year six of an administration, the 2014 map is favorable to Republicans, and President Obama's approval ratings are pretty low. Republicans even have reasonable hopes for a really big "wave" election, like every election since 2006, minus 2012.
But if the Republicans are going to ride an anti-Democratic wave to big pickups in the House and Senate, there are scant signs of it now, says Nate Cohn at The New York Times.
The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There aren't many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters. Democratic incumbents in red Republican states, who would be all but doomed in a Republican wave, appear doggedly competitive in places where Mitt Romney won by as much as 24 points in 2012.... The light-blue Democratic states and purple presidential battleground states, like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all seem to be heading toward tight races or Democratic wins, as one would expect in a fairly neutral year. [New York Times]
None of that means Republicans will have a bad year, or even that they won't win control of the Senate in a non-wave election. In fact, there weren't clear signs of a wave election in 2006, 2008, or 2010 until after this point in the election cycle, Cohn writes. "But as July turns to August, the GOP is now on the clock.... Every day that goes by without a shift toward the GOP increases the odds that there will not be a wave at all."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Spaniards seeing red over bullfighting
Under the Radar Shock resignation of top matador is latest blow in culture war over tradition that increasingly divides Spain
-
Bailouts: Why Trump is rescuing Argentina
Feature The White House approved a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina
-
James indictment: Trump’s retribution
Feature Trump pursues charges against Letitia James in revenge for her civil fraud lawsuit
-
Trump nominee in limbo after racist texts leak
Speed Read Paul Ingrassia lost Republican support following the exposure of past racist text messages
-
Trump begins East Wing demolition for ballroom
speed read The president’s new construction will cost $250 million
-
Appeals court clears Trump’s Portland troop deployment
Speed Read A divided federal appeals court ruled that President Trump can send the National Guard to Portland
-
Millions turn out for anti-Trump ‘No Kings’ rallies
Speed Read An estimated 7 million people participated, 2 million more than at the first ‘No Kings’ protest in June
-
DOJ indicts John Bolton over classified files
Speed Read Continuing the trend of going after his political enemies, Trump prosecutes his former national security adviser
-
Trump, Putin set summit as Zelenskyy lands in DC
Speed Read Trump and Putin have agreed to meet in Budapest soon to discuss ending the war in Ukraine
-
Courts deal setbacks to Trump’s Chicago operations
Speed Read President Donald Trump cannot deploy the National Guard in Illinois
-
Pentagon reporters turn in badges after refusing rules
Speed Read They refused to sign a restrictive new press policy imposed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth