The clock is ticking for signs of a big GOP win in November


There are lots of reasons to believe the November elections should be great for the Republican Party: Midterms are generally kind to the out-of-power party, the president's party almost always loses seats in year six of an administration, the 2014 map is favorable to Republicans, and President Obama's approval ratings are pretty low. Republicans even have reasonable hopes for a really big "wave" election, like every election since 2006, minus 2012.
But if the Republicans are going to ride an anti-Democratic wave to big pickups in the House and Senate, there are scant signs of it now, says Nate Cohn at The New York Times.
The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There aren't many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters. Democratic incumbents in red Republican states, who would be all but doomed in a Republican wave, appear doggedly competitive in places where Mitt Romney won by as much as 24 points in 2012.... The light-blue Democratic states and purple presidential battleground states, like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, all seem to be heading toward tight races or Democratic wins, as one would expect in a fairly neutral year. [New York Times]
None of that means Republicans will have a bad year, or even that they won't win control of the Senate in a non-wave election. In fact, there weren't clear signs of a wave election in 2006, 2008, or 2010 until after this point in the election cycle, Cohn writes. "But as July turns to August, the GOP is now on the clock.... Every day that goes by without a shift toward the GOP increases the odds that there will not be a wave at all."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
July 15 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Tuesday's political cartoons include the dangers of a deficit, Putin shooting fish in a barrel, Kermit the Frog, and Barack Obama's message to Democrats
-
Mortgage reform: is Rachel Reeves betting the house on City rules shake-up?
Today's Big Question Reforms could create up to 36,000 additional mortgages next year
-
The 'extraordinary' trials of Constance Marten and Mark Gordon
The Explainer Couple claim they were 'misunderstood' after going on the run with newborn baby
-
Secret Service 'failures' on Trump shooting
Speed Read Two new reports detail security breakdowns that led to attempts on the president's life
-
Trump set to hit Canada with 35% tariffs
Speed Read The president accused Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of failing to stop the cross-border flow of fentanyl
-
Mahmoud Khalil files $20M claim over ICE detention
Speed Read This is the 'first damages complaint' brought by an individual targeted by the Trump's administration's 'crackdown' on Gaza war protesters
-
Trump threatens Brazil with 50% tariffs
Speed Read He accused Brazil's current president of leading a 'witch hunt' against far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro
-
AI scammer fakes Rubio messages to top officials
Speed Read The unknown individual mimicked Rubio in voice and text messages sent to multiple government officials
-
SCOTUS greenlights Trump's federal firings
speed read The Trump administration can conduct mass federal firings without Congress' permission, the Supreme Court ruled
-
New tariffs set on 14 trading partners
Speed Read A new slate of tariffs will begin August 1 on imports from Japan, South Korea, Thailand and more
-
Elon Musk launching 'America Party'
Speed Read The tech mogul promised to form a new political party if Trump's megabill passed Congress