Canada likely to elect Justin Trudeau, legendary prime minister's son, on Monday, polls show

After nearly a decade in power, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party will be relegated to minority party status in national elections on Monday, and Canada will probably have a coalition government, according to polls. The Liberals, led by 41-year-old Justin Trudeau, are leading the Conservatives by about 9 percentage points, 39.1 percent to 30.5 percent, in the latest CTV/Globe and Mail tracking poll, The Associated Press reports, with the left-leaning New Democrats at 19.7 percent. According to a survey last week by Nanos Research, 71 percent of Canadians say it is time for a change of government.

The Liberal resurgence is being attributed to Canada's poor economic performance — more dependent on energy and mining after three terms with Harper in office, Canada has been hit badly by the slump in energy prices — and to a positive, surprisingly strong campaign by Trudeau, a former teacher and the son of long-serving Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. Harper had hoped to undo much of Pierre Trudeau's liberal legacy, AP says, but three terms probably weren't enough. Justin Trudeau has promised to boost the economy, stuck in two quarters of negative growth, and Canada's hard-hit manufacturing sector by spending heavily on infrastructure.

The Conservatives won a majority of seats in the 2011 federal elections, but even if Harper manages to hold onto a plurality on Monday, the Liberals and New Democrats had said they will band together and stifle his agenda, likely leading to new elections. "It's hard for me to see a path for his survival now," Tom Flanagan, Harper's former campaign manager, tells AP. "When you play out all the scenarios they all seem to end with a defeat on election night or a very tenuous victory that would not allow Harper to survive very long."

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

Join more than 350,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with a selection of The Week’s most interesting, enlightening and entertaining stories - plus daily puzzles.

Join more than 350,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with a selection of The Week’s most interesting, enlightening and entertaining stories - plus daily puzzles.

Sign up