The polls were tightening to a near-tie before Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump debated Monday night, and on Tuesday night's Kelly File, Megyn Kelly asked election prognosticator Larry Sabato how he thinks the debate will affect each candidate's numbers. John Kerry and Mitt Romney won their first presidential debates, got bumps in the polls, then lost their elections, she noted.
"There's a reason why we have three debates," said Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. After a bad first debate, like Trump had, "the story line can change and the candidates can improve their performance or deteriorate, depending on what they have learned from the first debate." More important than debates, however, are the political fundamentals, Sabato said, "and the thing that helps Donald Trump the most, and that's helped him all year long, is he's the change agent. We've had two terms of one party, and in modern times, we like to switch parties after eight years."
That's the good news for Trump and his supporters. David Plouffe, President Obama's former campaign manager, was less bullish on Trump's chances on Tuesday's Kelly File, telling Kelly that Trump absolutely will not win Pennsylvania and putting Clinton's odds of winning at "100 percent." He knows people think that's "crazy," Plouffe said (and Sabato agreed), "but I've been through this a couple times." Watch below. Peter Weber
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