This House rule change could oust Paul Ryan — and keep his successor around forever

Congressional rulemaking is not exactly sexy stuff, but it turns out the fate of one rule proposal could determine whether Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) holds on to his speakership.

Under current rules, any individual representative can trigger a vote to retain or oust the speaker. This power isn't really abused, because it's not difficult to calculate the likely results of such a vote and, the exit of former Speaker John Boehner aside, usually it would be an exercise in futility. Still, some members of Congress think the rule should be changed.

In a new rule proposed by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), the power to call that vote would shift to a majority of a party's representatives. This change was at least initially backed by Ryan in the run-up to his own selection as speaker last October. "No matter who is speaker, they cannot be successful with this weapon [of an individual lawmaker calling a vote] pointed at them all the time," said his office.

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But the rule change is opposed by the House Freedom Caucus, a group of conservative lawmakers who wouldn't have enough members to trigger a speaker vote under the new rule but who do have enough members to oust Ryan if he won't abandon the rule change. So if the change passes, the HFC may throw Ryan out — but his successor would basically be assured retention of power until the House turns blue. If it fails, Ryan likely keeps his seat, but he'll have to live with the democratic uncertainty speakers have faced for more than two centuries.