A new batch of state polls out Monday morning shows Hillary Clinton mostly ahead in several key swing states — but often by tight margins.
In Florida — the state upon which the presidential election could hinge — Quinnipiac University has Clinton at 46 percent and Trump 45 percent in the four-way race including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. The phone survey polled 884 likely voters from Nov. 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, while the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Clinton at 47 percent and Trump 46 percent in Florida.
In Nevada, Emerson College shows Clinton with 47 percent support to Trump's 46 percent in the four-way race. The phone survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Nov. 4-5, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump with a slim lead over Clinton in Nevada, with 46.5 percent to her 45 percent — but Nevada politics guru Jon Ralston predicts a Clinton win based on a wide lead of registered Democrats in the state's early voting, particularly the especially energized base of Latino voters against Trump.
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In New Hampshire — New England's major swing state — Emerson College has Clinton at 45 percent and Trump at 44 percent. The phone survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted from Nov. 4-5, and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. That's a much tighter margin than the University of New Hampshire shows; that poll of 707 likely voters puts Clinton at 51 percent and Trump 40 percent. It was conducted over the phone from Nov. 3-6 and has a 3.7-point margin of error. The RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire has Clinton at 43.3 percent and Trump at 42.7 percent.
In North Carolina, Quinnipiac University gives Clinton the edge with 47 percent to Trump's 45 percent, in a phone survey of 870 likely voters conducted from Nov. 3 to 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading Clinton, 47.5 percent to 45.8 percent; while President Obama won North Carolina by the slimmest of margins in 2008, Republican nominee Mitt Romney captured the state in 2012.
The major outlier of the swing states is Ohio, which looks to be the only large battleground in which Trump has a clear edge. Emerson College has Trump in the lead with 46 percent to Clinton's 39 percent, in a phone survey of 900 likely voters take from Nov. 4-5. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average of the Buckeye State shows Trump with 45.8 percent, Clinton with 42.3 percent.
And in Virginia — home of Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine — Christopher Newport University shows Clinton polling at 48 percent to Trump's 42 percent. The phone survey of 1,193 likely voters was conducted from Nov. 1-6, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton at 47.3 percent and Trump at 42.3 percent in Virginia.
