Democrats have the support to win Congress but maybe not the voters, new poll suggests


Democrats have opened up a 12-point lead in voter preference for which party controls Congress, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds. That's up from 8 points in August and 6 points the month before that. And there are some bad numbers for Republicans in the survey: Moderates and independents favor Democrats by more than 30 points, women 50 and older by almost 20 points, and voters in competitive congressional districts by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent. Fifty-nine percent of voters want to see "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of change.
But there are some warning signs for Democrats, too, the poll finds. First, Republicans have nearly caught up in interest about the midterms, with 61 percent rating their interest a 9 or a 10 on a 10-point scale, versus 65 percent of Democrats. That 4-point lead for Democrats is down from 16 points in July. Also, 73 percent of senior citizens — who tend to vote, and vote more for the GOP — are very interested in the midterms versus just 35 percent of voters age 18 to 34. Younger voters tend to vote more Democratic, when they vote, which isn't often, as Daniel Nichanian notes:
Men are also more interested than women, 60 percent to 56 percent, and white voters (61 percent) more interested than black (53 percent) and Latino voters (49 percent). When NBC and the Journal winnowed the overall congressional preference down to likely voters, the Democrats' 12-point lead shrank to 8 points. The poll was conducted Sept. 16-19 among 900 voters and it has an overall margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points, or ±4 points for likely voters.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Trump executive order targets homeless
Speed Read It will now be easier for states and cities to remove homeless people from the streets
-
Columbia pays $200M to settle with White House
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the school of failing to protect its Jewish students amid pro-Palestinian protests
-
Florida judge and DOJ make Epstein trouble for Trump
Speed Read The Trump administration's request to release grand jury transcripts from the Epstein investigation was denied
-
Trump attacks Obama as Epstein furor mounts
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the Obama administration of 'treasonous' behavior during the 2016 election
-
Trump administration releases MLK files
Speed Read Newly released documents on the 1968 assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. did not hold any new revelations, King historians said
-
Japan's prime minister feels pressure after election losses
Speed Read Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office
-
President diagnosed with 'chronic venous insufficiency'
Speed Read The vein disorder has given Trump swollen ankles and visible bruising on his hands
-
'Bawdy' Trump letter supercharges Epstein scandal
Speed Read The Wall Street Journal published details of Trump's alleged birthday letter to Epstein