Poll: House Republicans are in deep trouble in Southern California


Democrats are pushing hard to flip six Republican-held House seats in California, and in a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley's Institute for Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released Thursday, they are leading or tied in all six. "The Democratic tide threatens to swamp congressional districts in Southern California's suburbs that Republicans have controlled for decades," boosting Democrats' hopes of winning the House in November, the Times says. "But if the tide ebbs only slightly, the GOP could emerge with much of its control intact." Voting by mail begins on Monday.
The unpopularity of President Trump "appears to be the main motivator for voters in these districts," said Mark DiCamillo, the Berkeley IGS poll director. "He's the central figure." But the GOP's strategies — painting opponents as too liberal, banking on a gas tax repeal to boost support — seem to have mostly fallen flat, the Times says.
The biggest pickup opportunities for Democrats are California's 49th and 45th Congressional Districts, in Orange and San Diego counties, the poll found. In the 49th, represented by retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R), Democrat Mike Levin has a 55 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican Diane Harkey. Rep. Mimi Walters (R) in the 45th District trails Democratic challenger Katie Porter, 45 percent to 52 percent. In the 48th District, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Democrat Harley Rouda are tied at 48 percent apiece, Democrat Gil Cisneros is leading Republican Young Kim by 1 point in the open 39th District, Democrat Katie Hill leads Rep. Steve Knight (R) by 4 points in the 25th District, and in the Central Valley's 10th District, Rep. Jeff Denham (R) trails Democrat Josh Harder, 45 percent to 50 percent.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The poll also found Rep. Devin Nunes (R) leading Democratic challenger Andrew Janz 53 percent to 45 percent, and indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) ahead of Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar 49 percent to 47 percent. The Berkeley IGS poll surveyed 5,090 likely voters online Sept. 16-23, and the margin of error ranges from ±4 points to ±6 points.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
5 low ratings cartoons about the Late Show cancellation
Cartoons Artists take on early warning signs, the Gen Z stare, and more
-
Connie Francis: Superstar of the early 1960s pop scene
In the Spotlight The 'Pretty Little Baby' and 'Stupid Cupid' singer has died aged 87
-
Crossword: July 26, 2025
The Week's daily crossword puzzle
-
Trump executive order targets homeless
Speed Read It will now be easier for states and cities to remove homeless people from the streets
-
Columbia pays $200M to settle with White House
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the school of failing to protect its Jewish students amid pro-Palestinian protests
-
Florida judge and DOJ make Epstein trouble for Trump
Speed Read The Trump administration's request to release grand jury transcripts from the Epstein investigation was denied
-
Trump attacks Obama as Epstein furor mounts
Speed Read The Trump administration accused the Obama administration of 'treasonous' behavior during the 2016 election
-
Trump administration releases MLK files
Speed Read Newly released documents on the 1968 assassination of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. did not hold any new revelations, King historians said
-
Japan's prime minister feels pressure after election losses
Speed Read Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office
-
President diagnosed with 'chronic venous insufficiency'
Speed Read The vein disorder has given Trump swollen ankles and visible bruising on his hands
-
'Bawdy' Trump letter supercharges Epstein scandal
Speed Read The Wall Street Journal published details of Trump's alleged birthday letter to Epstein