With GOP Sen. Jeff Flake a yes on Kavanaugh, it's all down to Susan Collins and Joe Manchin

With key senators now making up their minds about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, only two remain undecided.

After voting yes to move Kavanaugh's nomination along to a full floor vote, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) confirmed Friday that he's also planning to vote yes on the final vote on Saturday, at least assuming nothing changes between now and then, per NBC News' Alex Moe. This came after Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another key swing vote, confirmed that she's a no on the final vote after being a no on cloture.

But Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has yet to confirm what her final vote will be. She is planning to announce her decision Friday afternoon. Although she voted yes to move Kavanaugh's nomination forward, it would not be unprecedented if she ended up going against Kavanaugh on the actual floor vote. After all, in 2017, Collins voted yes to move Betsy DeVos' nomination as education secretary to the floor for a vote, but she ended up voting no on confirming her, as The Atlantic explains. Famously, the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) also voted yes on cloture on the 2017 ObamaCare repeal bill, only to dramatically vote down the actual legislation. Another important question is whether Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will vote yes on the nomination after voting yes on cloture. For what it's worth, the White House reportedly expects both Collins and Manchin to vote yes, according to Fox News' John Roberts.

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If Collins announces she's voting yes on the final vote, and nobody else changes their minds, Kavanaugh would be confirmed. But if she announces she's going to vote no, it would not be surprising if Manchin does the same, as to avoid being the deciding vote, in which case Kavanaugh would not be confirmed. Clearly, then, Collins' announcement this afternoon will be vitally important.