Two polls released Sunday show Democrats with a modest but not comfortable lead in voter preference for which party controls Congress. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found a 7-percentage point lead for Democrats, 50 percent to 43 percent, down from a 9-point lead in the previous poll. A Washington Post/ABC News poll recorded an 8-point lead for Democrats, 52 percent to 44 percent, but that's down from a 13-point lead in October. In both cases, Republican base voters have become more engaged and some independents have shifted to backing the Republican.

In the most competitive House races, both polls showed Democrats with a narrower lead — 5 points for Washington Post/ABC News, 3 points for WSJ/NBC News. Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster for the WSJ/NBC News poll, compared the results to a kaleidoscope: "Turn it one way, and the numbers suggest a good Democratic night. Turn it again, and it suggests the GOP might squeak through." The GOP pollster, Bill McInturff, said the race is "more competitive," but "for Republicans, it feels slightly short of where you'd want to be for a national election.''

"Polls aren't always right," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said on Sunday's ABC This Week. "If polls are right you would have a split outcome," with Democrats winning the House and Republicans keeping control of the Senate. He then explained why the polls might be wrong.

On NBC's Meet the Press Sunday, Chuck Todd highlighted the truism that the groups that turn out to vote will determine who wins.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, including 744 likely voters, Nov. 1-3, and its margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points among registered voters, ±3.53 points among likely voters. The Washington Post/ABC News poll was conducted Oct. 29 to Nov. 1 in English and Spanish by Langer Research Associates. It surveyed 1,041 registered voters and had a margin of sampling error of ±3.5 points. Peter Weber

The billionaire former mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, has been slammed by his Democratic primary opponents for allegedly "buy[ing] his way into the debate[s]." On Tuesday night, he nearly admitted to buying a whole lot more than just that.

The Freudian slip came as Bloomberg was bragging about spending $100 million in the 2018 midterm elections to back 21 of the 40 Democrats who were elected to the House. "All of the new Democrats that came in, put Nancy Pelosi in charge, and gave the Congress the ability to control this president, I bought — I got them," Bloomberg said, quickly correcting himself.

Bloomberg is self-funding his campaign, the most expensive in presidential history; he broke the $500 million mark in ad spending on Monday. Read more about the former mayor's possible attempts to "buy an election" here at The Week. Jeva Lange

Former Vice President Joe Biden pulled a Joe Namath during Tuesday night's debate in Charleston, South Carolina.

Biden, the frontrunner in the Palmetto State, was quiet for the first few minutes of the debate before he was asked about his shrinking lead ahead of Saturday's state primary. The vice president, though, wasn't lacking any confidence about his chances, despite having previously described South Carolina as his campaign's firewall.

He said he was determined to win the state and would maintain his support among African American voters, but he eventually went into a full-on Namath-style guarantee when he was asked if he would drop out in a scenario where he didn't emerge victorious. Biden never answered that question directly, opting only to say "I will win South Carolina."Tim O'Donnell

With Super Tuesday looming, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has cemented himself as the man to beat in the Democratic primary. During Tuesday night's debate in South Carolina, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren rose to the challenge in her most direct attack on her progressive colleague to date. "The way I see this is, Bernie is winning right now because the Democratic party is a progressive party and progressive ideas are popular ideas," Warren began. She then added in no uncertain terms that "Bernie and I agree on a lot of things, but I think I would make a better president than Bernie."

Warren explained that "getting a progressive agenda enacted is going to be really hard and it's going to take someone who digs into the details to make it happen." She went on to site her record on battling big banks and health care, emphasizing that "I dug in. I did the work. And then Bernie's team trashed me for it."

As Sanders shook his head in disagreement, Warren finished: "Progressives have got one shot and we need to spend it with a leader who will get something done." Jeva Lange

Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg's campaign manager Mike Schmuhl wants to be realistic about Super Tuesday.

In a memo sent Tuesday, Schmuhl said the goal for next week when voters in 14 states, including Texas and California, head to the polls is not to win, but "minimize" frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) margin of victory. But, fear not, Buttigieg supporters, that doesn't mean the campaign is giving up. Schmuhl added that the subsequent Tuesdays on March 10 and 17 are where the mayor really has a chance to shine, pointing out that while Super Tuesday accounts for 34 percent of available delegates, those two voting slates account for 28 percent.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver thinks the memo is admirable in that it sets "realistic expectations," but he also argues it means Buttigieg might eventually have to rely on a contested convention to win the nomination, because without a healthy amount of delegates on Super Tuesday it will become incredibly difficult to win outright. Tim O'Donnell

A juror in the Roger Stone trial is setting the record straight.

In an op-ed for The Washington Post published Tuesday night, Seth Cousins wrote about the allegations being leveled against the jury. Last year, they found Stone, a longtime friend and adviser to President Trump, guilty of obstruction, witness tampering, and lying to Congress. Since then, Trump has accused the foreperson, who ran for Congress as a Democrat in 2012, of being "totally biased," and Stone's lawyers have claimed he did not have a fair trial.

There is a "striking irony" to this, Cousins wrote, because the foreperson "was actually one of the strongest advocates for the rights of the defendant and for a rigorous process. She expressed skepticism at some of the government's claims and was one of the last people to vote to convict on the charge that took most of our deliberation time." The jury followed all instructions, examined evidence, and made sure each voice was heard. "Roger Stone received a fair trial," Cousins said. "He was found guilty based on the evidence by a jury that respected his rights and viewed the government's claims skeptically. Our jury valued truth, plain and simple."

An estimated 1.5 million Americans serve on juries every year, and "elected officials have no business attacking citizens for performing their civic duty," Cousins said. "When the president attacks our jury's foreperson, he is effectively attacking every American who takes time off work, arranges child care, and otherwise disrupts their life temporarily to participate in this civic duty. His attacks denigrate both our service and the concept of equal justice under U.S. law." Read the entire op-ed at The Washington Post. Catherine Garcia

Michelle Janavs, the heiress to the Hot Pockets fortune, was sentenced to five months in prison on Tuesday after admitting to paying bribes to a fixer who promised to get her two daughters into the University of Southern California.

She is the 15th parent sentenced as part of the college admissions scandal, which rocked Hollywood and wealthy enclaves across the United States. Janavs, 49, of Newport Beach, California, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit laundering. "I'm so very sorry I tried to create an unfair advantage for my children," she told the court on Tuesday.

Federal prosecutors said she agreed to pay Rick Singer, a college admissions consultant, $100,000 to improve her daughters' ACT exam scores and $200,000 to have one of her daughters admitted to USC as a fake beach volleyball recruit. Janavs must also pay a $250,000 fine and serve two years of supervised release after her stint in prison.

Prosecutors had recommended Janavs serve 21 months in prison. Her defense lawyers argued that she was the victim of Singer's "manipulative sales tactics," and her public embarrassment was enough of a punishment. Catherine Garcia