New poll shows Trump is 'highly competitive' against leading 2020 Democrats in key battleground states
A year ahead of the 2020 presidential election, some new polling shows President Trump in a strong position in key battleground states.
A new poll released Monday by The New York Times and Siena College matches up Trump against former Vice President Joe Biden and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the six closest states the president won in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Among registered voters, Trump leads Warren by between three and six percentage points in three out of six of these states (Michigan, Florida, and North Carolina) and is even with her in two (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), while Warren beats him by two percentage points in one state: Arizona. Trump also leads Sanders by between one and three percentage points in three states (Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina), while Sanders beats Trump by one or two percentage points in the other three (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Biden, meanwhile, beats Trump among registered voters in four out of the six states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona), while Trump beats him in North Carolina and ties him in Michigan. Among likely voters, Trump generally fares better against the candidates, leading or tying Warren in all six states. This comes as the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Warren within five points of Biden nationally.
The Times' Nate Cohn notes this polling shows Trump "remains highly competitive" in these states crucial to his re-election, adding that "on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before."
This poll was conducted by speaking to 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13-26. The margin of error for each state is 4.4 percentage points except for Michigan, where the margin of error is 5.1 percentage points. Read the full results at The New York Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.
-
Venezuela’s Trump-shaped power vacuumIN THE SPOTLIGHT The American abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has thrust South America’s biggest oil-producing state into uncharted geopolitical waters
-
Most data centers are being built in the wrong climateThe explainer Data centers require substantial water and energy. But certain locations are more strained than others, mainly due to rising temperatures.
-
‘Maps are the ideal metaphor for our models of what the world might be’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Trump says US ‘in charge’ of Venezuela after Maduro grabSpeed Read The American president claims the US will ‘run’ Venezuela for an unspecified amount of time, contradicting a statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio
-
Bari Weiss’ ‘60 Minutes’ scandal is about more than one reportIN THE SPOTLIGHT By blocking an approved segment on a controversial prison holding US deportees in El Salvador, the editor-in-chief of CBS News has become the main story
-
CBS pulls ‘60 Minutes’ report on Trump deporteesSpeed Read An investigation into the deportations of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador’s notorious prison was scrapped
-
Trump administration posts sliver of Epstein filesSpeed Read Many of the Justice Department documents were heavily redacted, though new photos of both Donald Trump and Bill Clinton emerged
-
Trump HHS moves to end care for trans youthSpeed Read The administration is making sweeping proposals that would eliminate gender-affirming care for Americans under age 18
-
Jack Smith tells House of ‘proof’ of Trump’s crimesSpeed Read President Donald Trump ‘engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election,’ hoarded classified documents and ‘repeatedly tried to obstruct justice’
-
House GOP revolt forces vote on ACA subsidiesSpeed Read The new health care bill would lower some costs but not extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies
-
Hegseth rejects release of full boat strike footageSpeed Read There are calls to release video of the military killing two survivors of a Sept. 2 missile strike on an alleged drug trafficking boat
