Most of the world is headed toward extraordinary natural population decline, researchers say

By the end of the 21st century, nearly every country could have a naturally shrinking population, a new study published Tuesday in The Lancet found. The study predicts the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 before falling to 8.8 by 2100, and researchers say that's nothing to shrug your shoulders at.

"I think it's incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganize societies," Prof. Christopher Murray at the University of Washington told BBC.

The numbers help put things in perspective — 23 countries are expected to see their current populations cut in half, including Japan, Italy, and China, which the study suggests will lose its standing as the world's largest population to India. India is also predicted to have a smaller population, though the rate of decline will be less intense.

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Nigeria, meanwhile, is on pace to buck the trend, along with much of sub-Saharan Africa. The continent's largest country will be the world's second most populous nation at century's end, if the study's estimates hold.

The cause of the global trend is a fertility rate that's been in steady decline since the 1950s. Back then, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. In 2017, that number hit 2.4, and once it falls below 2.1, population size begins to fall. The study projects the rate will settle below 1.7 by 2100. Read the full study at The Lancet and more at BBC.