Most of the world is headed toward extraordinary natural population decline, researchers say

Newborn baby.
(Image credit: iStockphoto)

By the end of the 21st century, nearly every country could have a naturally shrinking population, a new study published Tuesday in The Lancet found. The study predicts the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 before falling to 8.8 by 2100, and researchers say that's nothing to shrug your shoulders at.

"I think it's incredibly hard to think this through and recognize how big a thing this is; it's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganize societies," Prof. Christopher Murray at the University of Washington told BBC.

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Nigeria, meanwhile, is on pace to buck the trend, along with much of sub-Saharan Africa. The continent's largest country will be the world's second most populous nation at century's end, if the study's estimates hold.

The cause of the global trend is a fertility rate that's been in steady decline since the 1950s. Back then, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime. In 2017, that number hit 2.4, and once it falls below 2.1, population size begins to fall. The study projects the rate will settle below 1.7 by 2100. Read the full study at The Lancet and more at BBC.

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Tim O'Donnell

Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.