The White House warned earlier today that Tehran was preparing to "imminently" launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The statement intensified fears that Israel is spiralling toward all-out war with Hezbollah, with the IDF launching "targeted" ground raids over the border into Lebanon.
On Friday, an Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah – the "biggest blow" yet of a campaign that has reportedly killed "more than a dozen" of the Iran-backed militia's top commanders, said the BBC.
What did the commentators say? For weeks, commentators have wondered why Iran has "responded so meekly to recent attacks on its top officials and close allies", said David Leonhardt in The New York Times. "The biggest explanation appears to be simply that Iran is weaker than it wants the world to believe."
Benjamin Netanyahu has "made clear that his ultimate target" is "defanging" Iran's clerical leadership, "the bankrollers, trainers and supposed protectors" of both Hamas and Hezbollah, said Jamie Dettmer in Politico.
In an address on Monday, the Israeli prime minister warned that "there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach". For Iran, "that will not sound like idle posturing", said Dettmer. In April, Israel retaliated against a failed Iranian missile barrage by destroying an air defence radar near Isfahan. In July, Israeli strikes killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. "Netanyahu's messaging about Israel's 'reach' is clear, limiting Iran's room for manoeuvre."
Iran's restraint so far "may come as a surprise, given that it is frequently portrayed as a country where ideology feeds irrationality", said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj in The Guardian. But it looks like Iranian leaders are "trapped by their rationality as they sit across the table from an adversary that is willing to make increasingly bold gambles".
What next? Iranian leadership has "chosen caution" until now, said Leonhardt, and appear to be "hoping events may present better opportunities in the future". The ground invasion of Lebanon "could further weaken Hezbollah – but also leave Israeli troops vulnerable to counterattacks". |