Why has Iran held back on Israel?

Earlier today, the White House warned that Tehran was "imminently" preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The report comes as Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah appear to be spiralling toward all-out war, with their long-standing conflict escalating significantly in recent weeks. 

Last Friday, Israel delivered the "biggest blow" to Hezbollah by killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive airstrike on Beirut, said the BBC. The strike followed weeks of intense Israeli operations against Hezbollah, in which Israel has reportedly killed "more than a dozen top commanders" and destroyed "thousands of weapons" through airstrikes. 

And as Israel continues to bombard Beirut and southern Lebanon, it has now announced the launch of "limited, localised, and targeted ground raids" against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

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What did the commentators say?

For weeks, commentators have wondered why Iran has "responded so meekly to recent attacks on its top officials and close allies", said David Leonhardt in The New York Times.  "The biggest explanation appears to be simply that Iran is weaker than it wants the world to believe," said Leonhardt. "And its leaders may recognise that they would fare badly in a wider war."

Indeed, even before Israel launched its ground offensive into Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "made clear that his ultimate target in the regional power shift is to undermine the authority of Tehran's clerical leadership, defanging the Iranians who are the bankrollers, trainers and supposed protectors" of both Hamas in Gaza and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah, said Jamie Dettmer in Politico. 

In an address on Monday, Netanyahu warned: "There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach". For Iran, "that will not sound like idle posturing". Israel is "not just fighting Tehran by smashing its allies and proxies" but by "showing its supremacy both in terms of technology and espionage on Iranian soil".

In April, Israel retaliated against a failed Iranian missile barrage by destroying an air defence radar near Isfahan, in what has been seen as a signal that Israel can "take out Iranian nuclear facilities at will". And in July, Israeli strikes killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and top Iranian commanders in Damascus and Beirut. "Netanyahu's messaging about Israel's 'reach' is clear," said Politico, ultimately "limiting Iran's room for manoeuvre".

Iran's leadership knows they "lack good options," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj in The Guardian, and "Iranian decision-makers have become increasingly risk-averse at a time when Israel keeps upping the ante". Iran's caution "may come as a surprise, given that it is frequently portrayed as a country where ideology feeds irrationality". But it now looks as if Iranian leaders are "trapped by their rationality as they sit across the table from an adversary that is willing to make increasingly bold gambles".

What Iran does next is up to Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, said Arash Azizi in The Atlantic. He has "not given up on his decades-long crusade against the West, Israel, and his own people's insufficient purity", said Azizi. "But he has understood that intransigence could prove self-destructive for his regime", and is thus leaving the door open for "negotiations with the West that could help lift sanctions and stabilise the country". 

What next?

Iranian leadership seems to have "chosen caution" so far, said Leonhardt, "hoping events may present better opportunities in the future". The ground invasion of Lebanon that "could further weaken Hezbollah – but also leave Israeli troops vulnerable to counterattacks". Meanwhile, Iran "also knows that Israel's flattening of Gaza and its settlements in the West Bank have hurt Israel's international reputation". And even if Iran "can't win an all-out war", its proxies aren't likely to disappear altogether.

The other possibility is that Iran will respond "aggressively" to these setbacks; "it just hasn't done so yet".