Why has Iran held back on Israel?
The Iran-backed Hezbollah has suffered devastating losses to Israel, but Iran has responded 'meekly' so far

Earlier today, the White House warned that Tehran was "imminently" preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. The report comes as Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah appear to be spiralling toward all-out war, with their long-standing conflict escalating significantly in recent weeks.
Last Friday, Israel delivered the "biggest blow" to Hezbollah by killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive airstrike on Beirut, said the BBC. The strike followed weeks of intense Israeli operations against Hezbollah, in which Israel has reportedly killed "more than a dozen top commanders" and destroyed "thousands of weapons" through airstrikes.
And as Israel continues to bombard Beirut and southern Lebanon, it has now announced the launch of "limited, localised, and targeted ground raids" against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What did the commentators say?
For weeks, commentators have wondered why Iran has "responded so meekly to recent attacks on its top officials and close allies", said David Leonhardt in The New York Times. "The biggest explanation appears to be simply that Iran is weaker than it wants the world to believe," said Leonhardt. "And its leaders may recognise that they would fare badly in a wider war."
Indeed, even before Israel launched its ground offensive into Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "made clear that his ultimate target in the regional power shift is to undermine the authority of Tehran's clerical leadership, defanging the Iranians who are the bankrollers, trainers and supposed protectors" of both Hamas in Gaza and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah, said Jamie Dettmer in Politico.
In an address on Monday, Netanyahu warned: "There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach". For Iran, "that will not sound like idle posturing". Israel is "not just fighting Tehran by smashing its allies and proxies" but by "showing its supremacy both in terms of technology and espionage on Iranian soil".
In April, Israel retaliated against a failed Iranian missile barrage by destroying an air defence radar near Isfahan, in what has been seen as a signal that Israel can "take out Iranian nuclear facilities at will". And in July, Israeli strikes killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and top Iranian commanders in Damascus and Beirut. "Netanyahu's messaging about Israel's 'reach' is clear," said Politico, ultimately "limiting Iran's room for manoeuvre".
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Iran's leadership knows they "lack good options," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj in The Guardian, and "Iranian decision-makers have become increasingly risk-averse at a time when Israel keeps upping the ante". Iran's caution "may come as a surprise, given that it is frequently portrayed as a country where ideology feeds irrationality". But it now looks as if Iranian leaders are "trapped by their rationality as they sit across the table from an adversary that is willing to make increasingly bold gambles".
What Iran does next is up to Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, said Arash Azizi in The Atlantic. He has "not given up on his decades-long crusade against the West, Israel, and his own people's insufficient purity", said Azizi. "But he has understood that intransigence could prove self-destructive for his regime", and is thus leaving the door open for "negotiations with the West that could help lift sanctions and stabilise the country".
What next?
Iranian leadership seems to have "chosen caution" so far, said Leonhardt, "hoping events may present better opportunities in the future". The ground invasion of Lebanon that "could further weaken Hezbollah – but also leave Israeli troops vulnerable to counterattacks". Meanwhile, Iran "also knows that Israel's flattening of Gaza and its settlements in the West Bank have hurt Israel's international reputation". And even if Iran "can't win an all-out war", its proxies aren't likely to disappear altogether.
The other possibility is that Iran will respond "aggressively" to these setbacks; "it just hasn't done so yet".
Sorcha Bradley is a writer at The Week and a regular on “The Week Unwrapped” podcast. She worked at The Week magazine for a year and a half before taking up her current role with the digital team, where she mostly covers UK current affairs and politics. Before joining The Week, Sorcha worked at slow-news start-up Tortoise Media. She has also written for Sky News, The Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard and Grazia magazine, among other publications. She has a master’s in newspaper journalism from City, University of London, where she specialised in political journalism.
-
Apple bows to Trump administration pressure over ICE tracking apps
In the Spotlight It’s the latest company to capitulate to Trump’s demands
-
Can TrumpRX really lower drug prices?
Today’s Big Question Pfizer’s deal with Trump sent drugmaker stocks higher
-
‘Every argument has a rational, emotional, and rhetorical component’
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Netanyahu agrees to Trump’s new Gaza peace plan
Speed Read At President Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, they agreed upon a plan to end Israel’s war in Gaza
-
Israel and the Gaza flotilla
The Explainer Activists fear loss of life after blaming Israel for drone attacks on ships
-
Rise of the far-right: what’s behind the popularity of Vox in Spain?
The Explainer Disillusioned younger voters are being drawn to Santiago Abascal’s party
-
What would happen if Israel lost America’s support?
Today’s big question Loss of US backing could be a ‘catastrophe’ for Israel
-
Kim Ju Ae: North Korea’s next leader?
The Explainer Kim Jong Un’s young daughter is being seen as his ‘recognised heir’ following a high-profile public appearance at China summit
-
Gaza genocide: will UN ruling change anything?
Today's Big Question Commission of inquiry’s findings ‘give unprecedented weight’ to genocide claims
-
Why ‘anti-Islam’ bikers are guarding Gaza aid sites
In The Spotlight Members of Infidels MC, who regard themselves as modern Crusaders, among private security guards at Gaza Humanitarian Foundation sites
-
Has Israel’s Qatar strike scuppered a ceasefire?
Today’s Big Question Netanyahu ‘gambles’ on ‘overwhelming strength’ rather than diplomacy in attack on Hamas negotiation team in Doha