The return of the Houthis: violence in the Red Sea

Just two months ago, said Ben Farmer in The Daily Telegraph (London), Donald Trump was "emphatic" in claiming the Houthi threat was dead. "They say they will not be blowing up ships any more," the US president said of the Yemeni militants, claiming to have bombed them into submission. Well, the Houthis are back - and apparently stronger than ever.

This week, the Iranian-backed group sunk two large cargo ships on the critical Red Sea shipping route "in quick succession", killing at least four crew members and taking a number of others hostage. In a "slick, Hollywood-style" video released by the group, Houthi fighters are seen attacking one of the ships - the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated Magic Seas – with missiles, before Kalashnikov-wielding fighters race on board. Soon after, explosive charges detonate simultaneously around the ship's hull – sending the 200m-long vessel to the bottom of the sea.

The cost for shipping

It was one of the most complex and violent Red Sea attacks since the group first entered the international stage 11 years ago, said Arab News (Riyadh). In 2014, the Houthis, members of the minority Shia Zaydi sect, swept down from their stronghold in northern Yemen and seized the capital, Sanaa – triggering a "grinding" civil war that is technically still being waged today.

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Since the start of the Gaza war, they have fired missiles and drones at Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians, while launching over 100 attacks on shipping; and weathering retaliatory air strikes from Israel and the US.

Those air strikes clearly haven't worked, said The National (Abu Dhabi). With their leadership and weaponry sheltered in the mountainous north, the militants have only upgraded their arsenal: as we saw with last week's attacks, they are now capable of "swarm" assaults that combine aerial drones, missiles, and explosive-laden speedboats that can be slammed into a ship's hull.

These developments could prove hugely costly for the shipping industry. The Red Sea corridor normally handles 12-15% of global trade; but it is now "once again a conflict zone" - forcing the weeks-long diversions of countless vessels around Africa, at a cost of "up to $1m in additional fuel per trip".

And yet US and European forces are nowhere to be seen, said Benoit Faucon in The Wall Street Journal (New York). "The international effort to protect the sea lanes has grown less robust in recent months", as fewer countries have the capabilities "to counter the Houthis' increasingly sophisticated arsenal". And the US, which has spent $7bn on strikes against the Yemeni militants, is loath to get involved again: "as long as the Houthis aren't shooting at American ships", the Trump administration considers the May ceasefire still in place. Passing cargo ships, protected by a handful of private security guards, have been left to the Houthis' mercies.

'Creative approaches'

If air strikes aren't working, said Yossi Melman in Haaretz (Tel Aviv), perhaps it's time to try some more "creative approaches". Israeli intelligence could pursue a "decapitation strategy" against Houthi leaders, just as it has done with great success against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Or Israel could hit Yemenis where it hurts, and target their "treasured" khat habit – bombing crops of the leaf, which provides an amphetamine effect, until the Houthis beg for relief. The "simplest" way to restrain them, though, would be to give in to their central demand, and declare a ceasefire in Gaza. Even then, the Houthis won't stop their campaign without major incentives, said Yishai Halper in the same paper.

Attacks on Israel and trade boost their domestic popularity, overshadowing criticism of their rule and their human rights abuses. "The only viable path to getting the Houthis to lay down their arms" lies in ending Yemen's civil war, either by defeating them or by formalising their rule. Until then, they'll remain "a force exceedingly difficult to stop".