As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, the raw numbers show the magnitude of his election victory. The president-elect improved on his 2020 showing in 2,367 counties across the US, and lost ground in just 240. Support for Trump has "swayed back and forth" over his three consecutive presidential runs, said The New York Times, but these election results reveal a "red shift" in many US regions that have "historically leaned Democratic".
What did the commentators say? One of the biggest shocks for Democrats, said Axios, is that the Latino vote is "continuing to slowly shift to the right", despite Trump's use of "racist rhetoric" to describe Latino migrants. That will have profound political effects going forward: Latinos make up 20% of the US population.
A wider shift appears to be taking place too. Race and class were once the bright dividing lines in US politics, but education and religion now seem to be the determining factors. "These characteristics divide Hispanic voters just as they do the rest of the country," said The Economist. Gender is another growing divide: Hispanic men favoured Trump by 10 points, while Hispanic women opted for Kamala Harris by 24 points, a gender gap repeated across other ethnic groups. "Trump's campaign pushed hard to court men, and particularly men of colour," said CNN. That effort "paid off".
The "conventional wisdom" is that Latino voters are "offended by anti-immigration rhetoric", Daniel McCarthy said in The Spectator. But that theory "isn't really so smart". A look at US history reveals how "white ethnic" immigrants, including Germans, Italians and Irish, shifted from backing Franklin Roosevelt's coalition to become Richard Nixon's so-called "Silent Majority" with a deep contempt for "left-wing cultural attitudes". Now history is repeating itself – "Latinos are not white liberals".
What next? Exit polls showed that voters of all political stripes are "dissatisfied or angry" with America's current direction, said CNN, and that the majority of those who expressed those sentiments voted for Trump.
"Americans wanted change and that meant Trump," Ed Kilgore said in New York magazine. The question now is whether Trump "can bring the kind of change he came to represent to his voters". The world has four years to find out.
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