Wales is going to the polls on 7 May in a hugely important Senedd election that brings not only the possibility of an end to Welsh Labour’s 27-year grip on devolved power but also a new voting system. Yet according to polling by YouGov/Cardiff University, 58% of Welsh voters don’t understand how the new Senedd voting system works.

How is the voting work changing?
Since 1999, the Senedd has been elected using the additional-member system also used in Scotland, in which voters cast ballots for both a constituency candidate and a party. A special formula was then applied to the party votes to select 20 additional members of the Senedd (MS).

This year, the elections will be held under a closed list proportional system. Voters will cast one vote for a party rather than an individual. Each party will prepare a list of candidates for each constituency, and seats will be allocated based on party vote share. The number of members will increase from 60 to 96, and the number of constituencies will decrease from 40 to 16.

What are the pros and cons?
One of the advantages is the end of by-elections: if a seat becomes vacant, it will be filled by the next candidate on the party list. If the departing MS is an independent, the seat will stay vacant until the next election.

The closed list system may “benefit emergent parties in Wales, to the detriment of more established parties, whose candidates are more likely to have a strong personal profile”, said the Institute for Government think tank. But it also “reduces voter choice” by taking away the ability to vote for an individual candidate.

Who is expected to win?
The election will be decided on three key issues, according to a Savanta poll for the BBC: the cost of living, health and social care services, and immigration. Younger voters also singled out a fourth issue: housing.

Reform and Plaid Cymru are currently projected to be neck and neck, on 28 seats each, with Labour on 26. The Greens and the Conservatives are each projected to get 10% of the vote. The most common prediction is a Plaid minority government propped up by Labour, “blowing a hole in Labour’s status as the default governing party”, said Politico.

Airlines are facing “their biggest test” since the pandemic as the Iran war escalates, said The New York Times. More than 52,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been cancelled – “more than half of all flights planned”. Tourism in the region has “effectively ground to a halt”, and the costs are “adding up”. 

‘Scrambling for alternatives’
Air traffic controllers have been “shepherding passenger jets through safer but congested airspace”, said the BBC. On a standard day, each controller would be responsible for about six aircraft at a time, but in times of war, that can easily double.

Airlines “have been scrambling to find alternatives” to routes through Iranian airspace, said The New York Times. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also taken a toll: the “Siberian corridor”, once a “relatively direct connection” between Europe and Asia, has become a “patchwork of workarounds”. Likewise, the airspace over the Gulf is now “largely devoid of commercial planes”. The Iran conflict is “further fragmenting a once efficient and finely tuned global aviation network”. For Emirates and other Gulf airlines that have “the highest profit margins in the industry”, continued disruption could mean “substantial” economic losses.

As “established east-west routes are narrowing, the skies over Central Asia matter more”, said The Times of Central Asia. Countries such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan cannot match the “far larger networks” and “deeper fleets” of Gulf hubs, but they can provide “overflight planning, air traffic management, and route resilience”. Their “aviation systems clearly now carry far greater strategic and economic importance”. 

Putting off passengers
The war has “exposed the fragility of modern travel”, said Bloomberg. Airlines’ growth plans have been thrown into “disarray”. Diversions add many hours to flights, so planes must carry more fuel, “an expensive burden in light of the spike in energy costs”. With the Strait of Hormuz “effectively shut”, markets have been “driving up prices of crude and products like diesel and jet fuel”. 

Carriers may have to “hike fares” and add surcharges to “cover the ballooning cost”. Safety concerns are also “likely to remain front of mind for many travellers”. Higher inflation could reduce demand to fly, even “spurring passengers to rethink long-haul trips”.

Martial arts champion Chuck Norris squares off against Bruce Lee in his breakout role in 1972 blockbuster “The Way of the Dragon”. Norris’ family announced his death today at the age of 86, after he was hospitalised in Hawaii.

Concord Productions Inc. / Golden Harvest Company / Sunset Boulevard / Corbis / Getty Images

Cornwall: Cosawes Barton Cottage, Ponsanooth
Impressive mini estate set in 12 acres between the cathedral city of Truro and Falmouth. Main suite, 3 further beds, 2 baths, kitchen, 3 receps, utility, 3 “5-Star Gold Award”-rated 3-bed letting cottages, 2-bed cottage, garden, outbuildings, parking. £2.65 million; Rohrs and Rowe.

Shropshire: The Ridge, Moston
A handsome former Methodist chapel, built in 1885 and beautifully converted into a house. 4 beds, 2 baths, kitchen, 2 receps, study/bed 5, utility, garden, garage. £775,000; Strutt & Parker.

Berkshire: Burnham Abbey, Taplow
A historic Grade I 13th century abbey (suitable for a range of uses, subject to consents). 3-bed cottage, 4-bed cottage, Grade II timber-framed barn, land and gardens of approx. 2.8 acres, parking. £2.5 million; Knight Frank.

Kent: The Old Rectory, Luddenham
A delightful Grade II, timber-framed 16th century former rectory, set in approx. 2 acres of natural gardens. Main suite, 3 further beds, family bath, kitchen/breakfast room, 2 receps, self-contained 1-bed flat, 1-bed cottage, triple garage, workshop, garden. £1.5 million; Strutt & Parker.

No one wants to say it, but I pity Fergie
Simon Kelner in The i Paper
In “the time-honoured sport of kicking someone when they’re down”, York councillors are to vote on stripping the “erstwhile Duchess of York” of her freedom of the city, writes Simon Kelner. “I know we live in an age of outrage and censoriousness” but Sarah Ferguson has already been “defenestrated, dispossessed, derided and disgraced”. I didn’t think “it was possible to feel even a modicum of pity” for her, but this “small-minded and meaningless retribution has done the trick”.

JD Vance looks like the smallest man in America
Holly Baxter in The Independent
The usually “polished” US vice president “is floundering”, writes Holly Baxter. He’s “managed to be against”, then for, then silent, about the Iran war, “all within the span of a few days”, and the line he’s walking is “getting finer”. Should he “tie himself” to a “geriatric president who’s making himself more unpopular by the day”, or be “the adult in the room”? “Unfortunately for John David Vance, it seems only time will tell.”

Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt Can Relax. AI Won’t Kill Movies
Parmy Olson on Bloomberg
A “highly realistic” AI video of “Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt in a bare-knuckle fight” has “fanned the flames of worry” in Hollywood, writes Parmy Olson. But AI won’t necessarily “destroy the art of filmmaking”. With a YouTube-like model, filmmakers could “become more like stakeholders, incentivizing them to care more about quality in a way that someone producing AI content for a flat fee might not”. Yes, “disruption hurts, but thoughtful gatekeepers can help it create more jobs than it destroys”.