“To great fanfare”, ceasefires have been announced in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran, said PBS News – yet fighting has continued. The term “ceasefire” is “rapidly losing its meaning”.

What’s been happening?
Contravening the US-brokered truce with Hamas in October, Israeli forces have continued to capture territory in Gaza, and at least 900 Palestinians have died in strikes, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health. Israel has also been intensifying bombardments of Lebanon and making deeper incursions across the border, while Hezbollah has kept up rocket fire of its own. The US and Iran have also continued to trade fire since a ceasefire agreement in April, as they struggle to reach a permanent truce.

What are the advantages?
Ceasefires “often seem to be just smoke and mirrors that precede another round of fighting”, said academics Avishay Ben-Sasson-Gordis and Simon Frankel Pratt on Foreign Policy. But “even when they don’t hold, they still have value”: they can “establish new bargaining baselines that, over multiple iterations, can become a ladder to a more permanent peace agreement”. The Northern Ireland peace process, for example, was primarily driven by two ceasefires that then paved the way for the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.

Even a partial decrease in fighting can save lives and reduce destruction. Truces can also help with humanitarian access because aid organisations can deliver food, medicine and other supplies, while civilians may be able to evacuate. Even brief pauses in fighting can enable exchanges of detainees or recovery of bodies.

What are the potential pitfalls?
Sceptics argue that imperfect ceasefires simply allow forces to regroup militarily. They can be exploited for propaganda, or they may create a false impression that a conflict is being resolved. They can also create long-term problems if policymakers don’t have clear objectives.

After the first Gulf War in 1991, the US stumbled into a “decade-long trap of its own making”, said academics Daniel Chardell and Samuel Helfont on Foreign Affairs. Washington “crafted a ceasefire agreement” with Iraq that led to ongoing tensions, repeated military confrontations and a long-term containment strategy. Subsequent US presidents were unwilling to accept Saddam Hussein remaining in power or to commit to removing him. In the end, the ceasefire became a stepping stone to the larger war in 2003.

The death of a British soldier in Iraq has refocused concerns over the UK’s military presence in the Middle East. Lance Corporal James Stewart Freeman died last Sunday during a training exercise, said the Defence Secretary John Healey. The US confirmed that he and an American soldier had died at a US base that houses some UK troops, in Erbil, near the Iranian border.

Heightened risk to British troops
The UK’s position on the Iran war is to participate in “defensive action” only. After Iran began retaliating against US-Israeli strikes, the UK deployed more personnel to the region, bringing the total number to about 1,000, including 200 in Iraq.

Since then, Northern Iraq has been “one of the most dangerous places for British troops”, said The Times. Tehran has been targeting “US strongholds” across the border; US soldiers in Erbil have “shot down more than 100 kamikaze drones” since the war started, and British personnel stationed at the base “have been within a few hundred feet of successful Iranian strikes”. 

The US has about “two dozen” similar coalition bases and outposts, with about 50,000 personnel, “scattered from Turkey to Oman”, said The Independent. Many are in Gulf nations – “all of which are at risk of Iranian retaliation”. The UK also has two Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; a string of drone attacks, presumably launched by Hezbollah, appeared to target one in March.

The UK’s naval support facility, which supports its “maritime security mission” in the Persian Gulf, has been in Bahrain since the 1980s, said Geraint Hughes, military historian at King’s College London, on The Conversation. The base was “close” to an Iranian missile strike targeting a US headquarters in February. That shows British military personnel “could potentially be at risk from an Iranian attack, even if indirect”.

Assumed British-US ‘complicity’
Iran is “unlikely to acknowledge” the distinction Keir Starmer has drawn between “defensive” operations and “offensive” ones. As part of the Five Eyes alliance, Britain also “closely coordinates its eavesdropping operations” with the US.

Fundamentally, Iran presumes the US and Britain will “always collaborate”. It may have “assumed British complicity in the launching of Operation Epic Fury”, and may “target the UK’s military assets”. The UK “may find itself drawn into a war it had no say in starting”.

Visitors lose themselves in “Cloud #07156”, an immersive “fog sculpture” by Japanese artist Fujiko Nakaya, in the circular Rotunda of the Bourse de Commerce in Paris. The installation uses high-pressure pumps and custom nozzles to release water into the air as a shifting mist.

Stephane de Sakutin / AFP / Getty Images

Wiltshire: Upper Minety, Malmesbury
This charming period Cotswold build offers long views over the surrounding countryside. The property spans approx. 38 acres, with 2 paddocks and land laid to permanent pasture. 5 beds, 4 baths, kitchen/breakfast room, 3 receps, outbuildings, stables, garden, parking. £1.75 million; Knight Frank.

Devon: Higher Collaton, Blackawton
An elegant Georgian property with just under 10 acres of pasture. 6 beds, 4 baths, kitchen/breakfast room, 2 receps, 2-bed barn, 1-bed cottage, garden, parking. £1.5 million; Marchand Petit.

Bedfordshire: North End, Bletsoe
Grade II thatched farmhouse with a wealth of period features. 5 beds, 4 baths, kitchen/breakfast room, 5 receps, garden, outbuildings, parking. £1 million; Fitzjohn Estates.

Lincolnshire: The Old Farmhouse, Fulbeck
A glorious Grade II property set in mature gardens and situated in the heart of one of Lincolnshire’s most attractive villages. 5 beds, 2 baths, kitchen, 3 receps, outbuildings, garden, parking. OIEO £750,000; Mount & Minster.

I have spent 26 years studying Vladimir Putin – this is why I think he’s about to crack
Bill Browder in The Independent
Vladimir Putin has a “favourite trick”, writes financier and human-rights activist Bill Browder. “Whenever he is in trouble at home, he starts a war abroad.” But this time, “it is not working”. With his Ukraine campaign “a busted flush”, the Russian president is “a cornered man” – “which is exactly why this is the worst possible moment to push Ukraine towards a peace deal”. We must make Putin “more frightened, more isolated and more beleaguered”, not “hand him a lifeline”.

Governments need to learn how to talk about debt
Gillian Tett in the Financial Times
In an age of “rising populism”, it’s hard for governments to push through debt-cutting measures, writes Gillian Tett. The OECD is urging world leaders to “address the political obstacles” by demystifying fiscal policy for voters. Instead of “pontificating about abstract issues like debt-to-GDP ratios”, they’re advised to explain debt on social media, using “simple metaphors, such as a household budget”. But “humans are highly skilled” at “ignoring bad news”; it may take a bond market “crunch” to “concentrate minds”.

In one smart move, Prince William has shown us who he really is
Simon Kelner in The i Paper
The Prince of Wales’ recent visit to the Prince of Peckham turned out not to be to “a fellow royal from an obscure south London lineage”, writes Simon Kelner, but rather “a public house where they sell a cocktail called Randy Bull”. William’s remarks about saving pubs were a “foray into politics” that some frown upon. But the royal family is positioning itself “as a guardian of civil society”, trying to “identify those threads that still bind the country together”.