"Does Hamas still exist militarily? Yes. Is it organized? No. The path to completely dismantling them goes on." This was the view of a senior Israeli military official in March, yet Israel has "failed to destroy Hamas as a military and political force," Beverley Milton-Edwards, the co-author of a forthcoming book on the Islamist group, said at The Times.Â
What did the commentators say? At the time of Hamas' surprise assault on October 7 last year, Israel put Hamas' military strength at between 30,000 and 40,000 fighters. The Israeli army has been "amazed every day by how strong Hamas is" in the face of intense air strikes and ground operations by the Israeli Defence Force, said military analyst Yoav Zitun in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. "It is a real army that was established 50 minutes from Tel Aviv over the past years," with a stockpile of "hundreds of thousands of weapons," including advanced rocket launchers, explosive drones, machine guns and Kalashnikov rifles, supported by advanced communication systems and supplied by a network of tunnels spread across Gaza.Â
By spring of this year, following months of bombardment by air, land and sea, insiders and regional experts painted a "grim" overall picture for Hamas, the Financial Times said in March. But estimates of the group's strength are "notoriously difficult." Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that at least 18 of its 24 battalions have been "dismantled as organized fighting forces." Half its fighters, including several top field commanders, are believed to have been killed, leaving behind "small guerrilla cells, emerging to fire rocket-propelled grenades or place explosive devices," said the Financial Times. The majority of fighters are now believed to be hiding in and around the southern city of Rafah ahead of a planned assault by Israeli forces.Â
What next? Whatever its numbers, U.S. intelligence analysts foresee Hamas being able to continue a "lingering armed resistance for years to come," using its extensive underground tunnel network to "hide, regain strength and surprise Israeli forces." And what constitutes victory for both sides remains wildly different. "Let's assume that all of Gaza lies in ruins and someone will stand there left from Hamas, a wounded soldier, and will raise a Hamas flag — they've won the war," said Micha Kobi, a retired former senior official in Israel's Shin Bet security agency. "That's what they believe." |