Poland has spent the past several years watching anxiously as its neighbor, Ukraine, fends off an invasion by Russia. But following an incursion into Polish airspace on Wednesday by what Prime Minister Donald Tusk described as a “huge number of Russian drones,” Warsaw has taken the rare step to invoke Article 4 of the NATO charter.
The measure calls for member nations to “consult together” and determine if the “territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.” If so, the group can then invoke NATO’s Article 5, which calls for a unified and potentially armed response.
The drone incursion into Polish airspace has “thrust NATO’s collective defense principles into the spotlight,” said Al Jazeera. While Poland is “not quite” ready to invoke Article 5, beginning Article 4 consultations is a “political precursor” to any militarized deliberations. But, said former United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller to NPR, Articles 4 and 5 are “separate,” and Poland's move is “not necessarily, by any means, a prelude” to a military response. Invoking Article 4 has “traditionally” been a way for member nations to “gather together quickly. The message is one of urgency.”
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Russia’s “provocation” was designed to “check the mechanism of operation within NATO and our ability to react,” said Polish President Karol Nawrocki, per CNN. “Thank you, because we passed all these tests.”
Although Russia has denied responsibility for the drone incursions, the “violation last night is not an isolated incident,” said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday. As the ”most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began,” said European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on X, “indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental.”
But Russian drones and missiles have “strayed into Polish territory” over the past few years “with no consequence,” said The Atlantic. By failing to “prepare properly for immediate threats, much less future war,” the NATO member states have demonstrated a “constant weakness,” which has in turn “emboldened Putin” by reinforcing the notion that affiliate countries have “no idea how to look after their own security.” Although the fewer than two dozen drones that breached Polish airspace were ultimately neutralized — the first time a NATO member state is “known to have fired shots in the war,” Reuters said — the incident offers “little reason for confidence” in NATO’s odds “if faced with 600 drones and missiles on a single night,” said The Atlantic.
What next?
Tusk has “pledged to push ahead” with what he called the Polish military's “great modernization program” this week, The Associated Press said. This is particularly with eyes toward the expected first delivery of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, which are “part of a support package of 32 aircraft that was finalized five years ago,” said Foreign Policy. Dutch-piloted F-35 jets were among the NATO forces dispatched to take down the Russian drones over Poland. But, the incident has also “brought questions about the wisdom of using advanced fighter jets” against “relatively cheap drones,” said the AP.
There is meanwhile “no time limit on how long” the Article 4 consultations should last, Reuters said. The language of the rule is “flexible enough” that it allows each member nation to determine “how far to go in responding” to an attack.
Shortly after the drone attack, Poland closed its border with Russian ally Belarus, where the Russian military is conducting “Zapad” training exercises that are “very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective,” said Tusk. The closure is expected to remain in effect through early December, with Poland also sending 40,000 troops to the border region.
The “way ahead for NATO is clear,” said Foreign Policy. It must “immediately provide Ukraine with long-range strike weapons” capable of hitting targets in deep Russia, as well as “dramatically upgrade its own defenses along its eastern border.”
There is little precedent if NATO does ultimately invoke Article 5. That cornerstone of the group’s mutual assistance pact has only been “activated once before,” Reuters said, “on behalf of the United States, in response to the September 11, 2001, hijacked-plane attacks.”
