What would happen if Israel lost America’s support?

France has joined the UK, Canada, Australia and Portugal in formally recognising a Palestinian state, leaving the increasingly isolated Israel more dependent on US support.

“America is all that stands between Israel and a pariah status that would have dire implications for its diplomatic, legal and military security,” said The Economist. But there are “cracks deep within the foundations of the alliance”.

What did the commentators say?

Despite Benjamin Netanyahu’s “blithe assurances” that relations with America are strong, “they are not”. Israel’s prime minister has “riled the Trump administration” and is losing support from US voters across the board. Americans “rightly shudder” at the sight of starving children in Gaza, and Israel’s unilateral moves – such as missile strikes on Qatar – have frustrated the US president. For such a small country in a “dangerous and hostile neighbourhood”, the loss of US backing would be “a catastrophe”.

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Militarily, America’s support for Israel is underpinned by a decade-long agreement; the current deal, worth $3.8 billion a year to Israel, runs until 2028. US military aid to Israel has at least tripled since the 7 October attacks and Washington directly provided one-third of Israel’s defence budget in 2024, said the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. But there are fears that Trump will seek a less favourable deal next time.

The loss of US support might mean the end to the block on commercial satellites that Israel relies upon to “obscure its territory”, Hamze Attar, a defence analyst, told Al Jazeera. Israel could also lose the defence systems, such as Iron Dome and Arrow, which are partly funded by Washington. It would be forced to buy weapons from Europe, rather than getting them for free as it does from the US.

Israel is “very dependent on the US financially”, said Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political scientist, and losing that "would make things difficult”, but the nation's economy “wouldn’t collapse entirely”.

Politically, American support has been “the gift that keeps on giving” to the Israeli right, said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser. Without US support, the right’s “legitimacy” wouldn’t be there.

Washington has also frequently used its veto on the UN Security Council to block critical motions against Israel, including demands for a ceasefire in Gaza. It has also supported Israel in the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, making it a vital ally for Israel on the world stage.

What next?

With more countries set to formally recognise a Palestinian state, some Israeli ministers are pushing for the annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank.

This controversial move, encroaching further into Palestinian territory, would “antagonise” the Arab world and potentially the US, said The Wall Street Journal. It would undermine the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries, and “dent Trump’s hopes of establishing his legacy as a peacemaker”.