Can Obama take the economy off the table in 2012?
Expect the president, eager to distract voters from his embarrassing record on the economy, to repeatedly tout his foreign policy successes
Conventional wisdom predicts that the 2012 presidential election will be primarily about jobs and economic growth, and that doesn't bode well for the incumbent at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It's been more than 70 years since we re-elected an incumbent president with unemployment above 8 percent. Even though the official jobless rate under Ronald Reagan went higher than we have seen under Barack Obama (10.8 percent in November and December 1982), it dropped below 9 percent 13 months before the 1984 election, and descended to 7.2 percent in June 1984, with the economy gaining a stunning 6.55 million jobs in just 19 months, averaging a gain of 345,210 jobs per month during that period.
No one expects that kind of job growth in this cycle. It's highly unlikely that the economy will move from a liability to an asset for President Obama or the Democrats. If conventional wisdom and electoral history hold, Obama will be a one-term president. But what if he could turn voters' attention away from the sputtering economy and make 2012 into an election based on a perceived strength in foreign policy and his performance as a war president?
If conventional wisdom and electoral history hold, Obama will be a one-term president.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Undoubtedly, Obama's team will want to highlight non-economic issues, especially those that potentially provide contrast with Republican hopefuls. This will be especially true for the current crop of GOP frontrunners, two of whom have extensive private-sector records of financial success (Mitt Romney and Herman Cain), and the other with a public-sector record of managing a job-creating environment (Rick Perry). The obvious choice for differentiation will be foreign policy, especially Obama's record on military action.
That does have some potential for Obama. The president has racked up some impressive scores on the battlefield in the war on terror, including Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki. The stepped-up drone strikes in Pakistan has crippled the leadership of al Qaeda, and Obama's order to kill pirates holding Americans hostage gave an early indication that this president would not shrink from wielding American power — at least on some occasions. He also clearly wanted to claim some credit for the death of Moammar Gadhafi, which was enabled by Western military strikes, if not directly creditable to them.
It doesn't hurt that Obama's potential rivals also seem to be talking about everything but the economy. The big takeaway topics from recent Republican presidential debates have ranged from HPV vaccinations to hostage negotiation with terrorists, and from the finer points of book publishing and between-edition edits to the ins and outs of subcontracted lawn care. Only when Herman Cain hit a big polling updraft did the Republican presidential candidates get around to seriously discussing economic policy during the debates, even if all they did initially was attack Cain's plan.
However, Obama will have some problems in using foreign policy to distract from America's economic woes. First, while Obama gets credit for taking out bin Laden, voters expected an American president to take that shot if the opportunity presented itself. Obama got a momentary boost in polling from the success of the mission, but the short duration of that bump tells the story of how successful an "I Got Bin Laden" campaign strategy will be in 2012. That will also be true of the withdrawal from Iraq, which took place on George W. Bush's timetable rather than Obama's. The killing of Awlaki proved a lot more politically difficult, as civil libertarians on both sides of the partisan divide questioned whether Obama had overstepped the law in targeting an American citizen for a military strike, even though most Americans seemed to have no trouble with the decision.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The case of Gadhafi is even murkier. While no one will miss the brutal tyrant, we may not like what follows next, either. Already the new regime in Tripoli has announced the imposition of certain elements of Sharia law ahead of any democratic reforms, and the death of the dictator at the hands of the militia that captured him doesn't give a lot of confidence about the discipline of the new government's security apparatus. Thousands of shoulder-fired missiles have gone missing, and the U.S. says that terrorist groups are trying their best to get their hands on these weapons, mostly Soviet-era SA-7s that work well against civilian and military aircraft at lower altitudes. It won't take more than one or two successful shots at American aircraft by terrorists with these weapons to remind people how the missiles got out onto the open market in the first place.
A debate on foreign policy would also inevitably return focus to Obama's handling of the Israeli-Palestinian impasse, and that won't be a good topic for the incumbent. Obama's inept handling of the issue of building in Jerusalem in the early months of his presidency gave Mahmoud Abbas an excuse to bail out of direct negotiations, even though Abbas had never made the issue a deal-breaker before Obama's intervention. The president's demand for Israel to return to 1967 "borders" as a condition of negotiation — rather than a result of direct negotiation with the Palestinians — earned him a lecture from Benjamin Netanyahu and rebukes from Senate Democrats. Even Hamas rejected Obama's demand (although obviously for different reasons), making Obama look foolish and unschooled on the issues.
Lastly, though, the American voters won't allow Obama or his eventual Republican challenger to change the subject too often. While foreign policy and national security will surely be important topics in the 2012 election, they will not override the personal experience of so many Americans living through the worst economy in decades, especially with their homes devalued to the point of being albatrosses rather than assets, and little hope in sight for significant growth. Voters demanded change based on economic and fiscal policy in both 2008 and 2010, and it's a safe bet that 2012 will be fought on the exact same lines.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Edward Morrissey has been writing about politics since 2003 in his blog, Captain's Quarters, and now writes for HotAir.com. His columns have appeared in the Washington Post, the New York Post, The New York Sun, the Washington Times, and other newspapers. Morrissey has a daily Internet talk show on politics and culture at Hot Air. Since 2004, Morrissey has had a weekend talk radio show in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area and often fills in as a guest on Salem Radio Network's nationally-syndicated shows. He lives in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota with his wife, son and daughter-in-law, and his two granddaughters. Morrissey's new book, GOING RED, will be published by Crown Forum on April 5, 2016.
-
Nigeria's worsening rate of maternal mortality
Under the radar Economic crisis is making hospitals unaffordable, with women increasingly not receiving the care they need
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Elevating Earth Day into a national holiday is not radical — it's practical'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
UAW scores historic win in South at VW plant
Speed Read Volkswagen workers in Tennessee have voted to join the United Auto Workers union
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published