Hillary, Hillary, Hillary: Why the first Democratic debate will be all Clinton, all the time

After months of watching Republican presidential hopefuls soak up the media attention — and the ratings — Democrats finally get their turn in the prime-time limelight tonight in Las Vegas. Five Democratic contenders will take the stage at the Wynn resort at 9 p.m. ET to take questions from CNN's panel. But we all know this debate is pretty much all about one Democratic candidate.

Looking at you, Hillary.

You can see it in the size of the field, and the poll numbers. The contrast between the GOP and Democratic debate series is stark. Republicans have so many candidates in the race that Fox, CNN, and CNBC all had or will have polling thresholds to divide the event into a preliminary and main debate. Democrats only have five candidates, three of whom might not have even qualified for the preliminary rounds in the GOP debates. Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee all have Real Clear Politics polling averages below 1 percent. None of them have polled above 2 percent in a month, and all three have had 0 percent in four or more polls over the same time period. Chafee has had eight goose eggs, with support only registering in four polls.

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That leaves two real contenders on stage tonight: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. More than two-thirds of prospective Democratic primary voters support one of these two candidates, with the remainder going to the man whose presence will haunt the stage tonight. Joe Biden has declined to participate in the event, but the vice president routinely polls in double digits, coming up just shy of 20 percent in the RCP average.

But let's be clear: Most, if not all, of tonight's attention will fall on Clinton, who has to arrest a dangerous slide in the polls that has not only put her in range of Sanders, but may encourage Biden to jump into the race in the next few days.

Clinton does not do well in debate formats or under tough questioning, as she proved in the 2008 primary cycle, in press conferences during her book tour, and during this 2016 cycle. However, she's not some amateur who's going to freeze up either. She might surprise people tonight.

The crux of these Democratic debates will not be about policy, but about authenticity and trust. Those qualities will get the most attention, and Clinton has to find a way to demonstrate both. It won't be easy. Even Clinton knows voters don't think she's a human being.

Expect Sanders to attack Clinton for her triangulation on his policies, especially on Keystone and the TPP agreement, and trade in general. Sanders started that attack on Meet the Press Sunday, saying that voters "will have to contrast my consistency and my willingness to stand up to Wall Street and corporations, big corporations, with the secretary." But Sanders won't go crazy on Clinton, even when he's focusing on her. He needs to temper his attacks to prove himself a statesman who can carry the whole Democratic Party should she collapse, Biden bow out, and he somehow become the nominee.

None of the other three middling candidates need to demonstrate that restraint. To move the needle, these lowly One Percenters need to score points off of Clinton. O'Malley will have to hammer her on her lack of notable achievements after nearly a quarter-century in Washington, and contrast that to his record as governor of Maryland. Webb has unique standing to challenge Clinton on her foreign-policy record at the State Department, which would also require the former Navy secretary to attack the flailing record of Barack Obama. Chafee will likely attack Clinton for her vote in 2002 to authorize the second Iraq War, which might be the easiest attack for Clinton to parry all night.

How can Clinton survive all of these attacks? She'll have to handle them with grace and good humor, which clearly does not come naturally to her. More importantly, Clinton will have to ignore many attacks, not play too much defense, and pivot to establish some form of authenticity and rebuild trust with voters. People need more of a reason to vote for Clinton than the fact that she wants to be president. They need to have a connection to her that goes beyond her own claims of victimhood by the political process.

Expect Clinton's opponents to be obsessed with her tonight. But expect Clinton to try and move above and beyond the other Democratic contenders, and instead focus on Republican candidates and their stumbles thus far. You're going to hear a lot from her about Donald Trump and Ben Carson, for instance, while selling herself as a steady, experienced hand who can take over on Day One. That could allow her to turn this back onto her Democratic opponents, rebuking them for internecine fighting rather than targeting the GOP. That might force the others to turn their guns on Republicans, which would all but guarantee an easy night for Clinton.

To reverse the common political axiom: As long as she's not explaining, she's not losing. With her strong standing in the Democratic primaries, not losing tonight will be sufficient. If she can not lose sufficiently, Clinton might even keep Biden from entering the race. And in that sense, not losing would be a big win for Team Hillary.