According to a primary forecast from FiveThirtyEight the morning before Thursday's Republican debate, Ted Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1. Donald Trump sits behind Cruz with a 29 percent chance, and Rubio, Carson, and Bush trail from there at 14, 3, and 1 percent respectively.
But if Trump was looking to take back the odds on Iowa Thursday night, he found a formidable opponent in his former buddy, Cruz:
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Mr. Cruz did not just dominate much of the Republican debate, he slashed, he mocked, he charmed and he outmaneuvered everybody else onstage — but none as devastatingly and as thoroughly as this campaign's most commanding performer, Donald J. Trump.
CNN:
The Texas senator sought to dismiss Trump's questions about his "natural-born" status as ridiculous by introducing questions about Trump's own eligibility given the billionaire's Scottish-born mother. And he pointed out that he, a lawyer who's argued constitutional cases before the Supreme Court, would not be taking any legal advice from Trump, who has no legal training.
"Cruz started strong and set himself apart from Trump on issue of his own citizenship," said one Iowa Republican — who, like all the insiders, completed the survey anonymously. "Cruz hit predictable touchpoints for hard-right voters."
...What is new from after Thursday night's debate is the possibility of a Trump/Cruz alliance as we move through the primaries. Indeed, for the first time Trump floated the idea of taking Cruz as his vice president. Cruz didn't say no. And when Cruz suggested that Trump could be his vice president, Trump said “I don't think so” which turned into a laugh and they moved on.A Cruz/Trump ticket would combine a lot of what GOP voters are looking for — and they would condense much of the vote.
The Iowa caucuses are 17 days away.
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