Will Boris Johnson face leadership challenge if he fails to deliver a Tory-friendly Brexit?
Prime minister battles to quiet rumblings of discontent in his party as talks with EU falter at final hurdle
As negotiations with the EU go down to the wire, Boris Johnson has been warned his job may be at stake if he tables a withdrawal agreement that does not satisfy Conservative MPs eager to “get Brexit done”.
An unnamed MP told political journalist James Forsyth that if Johnson “lets us down, I’ll send my letter in”. And a key figure in the European Research Group (ERG) - which led the charge against Theresa May’s Brexit deal - told Forsyth that the arch-Brexiteers will oppose any agreement struck by the current prime minister that fails to live up to their expectations.
Officials from both the UK and EU have said that a Brexit deal could be tabled “within days”, but amid reports of last-minute “curveball” from the bloc’s negotiators, a no-deal exit continues to loom.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Tory-friendly deal
While many Tory MPs would back the PM no matter what he tables, a number of factions within the Conservative Party are vying for their own, more specific vision of Brexit.
And these factions are in no mood to compromise.
The 60-odd Eurosceptic MPs in the ERG arguably pose the biggest threat, following their threat to vote down any deal that does not protect “UK sovereignty” - in effect, the hardest Brexit possible.
For the ERG, leaving the EU and reverting to World Trade Organization (WHO) rules “would be just fine”, Politico says. In other words: “No deal, no sweat.”
Former Tory leadership candidate Rory Stewart told ITV News last week that Johnson “cannot afford to lose” the support of the influential group.
“If he loses those people, if they decide he has signed a Brexit deal which doesn’t respect sovereignty, for example, he’s really toast,” Stewart said.
An unnamed ERG member told The Telegraph’s chief political correspondent Christopher Hope this week that if UK sovereignty is not preserved in the final agreement, “I have no doubt we will vote against the treaty in whatever vote is called”.
Another source added: “Our side has made it clear we trust the PM on his red lines like sovereignty etc. Nevertheless, as a research group, we will read it before deciding. In the unlikely event it does not respect sovereignty, MPs would vote against.”
Can Johnson deliver the required goods?
Any and all of the potential outcomes to the Brexit talks are likely to leave vast swathes of the party unhappy.
Former minister for higher education George Walden warned back in September that a no-deal exit would be “lunacy” in the midst of the Covid pandemic, as The New European reported at the time.
On the other hand, should Johnson make considerable concessions to get a deal over the line, he could wind up upsetting his party’s hard-line Eurosceptics.
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen claimed last week that the EU was willing to be “creative” in order to seal the deal.
But The Telegraph’s Hope suggests that if this “creativity” means Eurosceptics view the deal as “BRINO” - ERG code for “Brexit in name only” - the PM “might be seeing more of his young son Wilfred than he currently already does”.
Echoing Stewart’s recent warning, a “Eurosceptic source” told Hope that if a “large body of Tory MPs branded it BRINO” and voted against the party, “Boris is toast”, adding: “They know that and so presumably will avoid it.”
Covid anxiety
Johnson has already faced down revolts within his party without facing a direct leadership challenge.
But his strategy for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, and the restrictions that have come with it, have been hugely controversial within the party.
Johnson this week faced the largest revolt of his premiership when as the Daily Mirror reports, “more than one in four of his MPs” voted against the new coronavirus tiers for England.
The simmering tension over the Covid restrictions are “a leadership challenge waiting to happen”, the paper adds.
Who are the challengers?
Political pundits believe that any leadership challenge is unlikely to be spearheaded by members of the ERG, despite their talk of rebellion. Instead, the i news site suggests, MPs who “combine a high public profile with a willingness to needle the government” pose the biggest threat to Johnson.
Leading contenders to take over the top job would be likely to include Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Greg Clark, Tobias Ellwood, Julian Smith, Robert Halfon and Tom Tugendhat, says the site. Many of these runners and riders chair select committees, though most have not gone so far as to vote against the government yet.
Any leadership contest is likely to be led by Johnson’s popular Downing Street neighbour, however.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak stands out among his fellow cabinet members as one of the few viewed as having waged an effective battle in the ongoing war against Covid.
And despite Sunak insisting that he “definitely” does not want the keys to No. 10, some leading Tories are having none of it after being “charmed by the man next door”, says Bloomberg.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
7 beautiful towns to visit in Switzerland during the holidays
The Week Recommends Find bliss in these charming Swiss locales that blend the traditional with the modern
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Werewolf bill
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
'This needs to be a bigger deal'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
John Prescott: was he Labour's last link to the working class?
Today's Big Quesiton 'A total one-off': tributes have poured in for the former deputy PM and trade unionist
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Last hopes for justice for UK's nuclear test veterans
Under the Radar Thousands of ex-service personnel say their lives have been blighted by aggressive cancers and genetic mutations
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Donald Trump wreck the Brexit deal?
Today's Big Question President-elect's victory could help UK's reset with the EU, but a free-trade agreement with the US to dodge his threatened tariffs could hinder it
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Was Georgia's election stolen?
Today's Big Question The incumbent Georgian Dream party seized a majority in the disputed poll, defying predictions
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Moldova backs joining EU in close vote marred by Russia
Speed Read The country's president was also pushed into a runoff election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why is Germany cracking down on migration?
Today's Big Question New border rules test the European Union
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published