Democrats could still win in November. No, really.

Their poll numbers are awful. But there's a path to midterms victory.

President Biden.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images, iStock)

If and when the smoke from Russia's war in Ukraine clears — or is replaced by the fog of forever war — the focus of U.S. politics will turn inexorably toward November's midterm elections. Democrats won't like what they see. While there is still, just barely, time to stage a comeback, avoiding a wipeout will require a coordinated pivot from party leadership down to the lowliest House candidate.

How bad are things? The FiveThirtyEight average of President Biden's approval has him at 42.1 percent, virtually identical to former President Donald Trump's the day before the 2018 midterms. In that election, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House.

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David Faris

David Faris is an associate professor of political science at Roosevelt University and the author of It's Time to Fight Dirty: How Democrats Can Build a Lasting Majority in American Politics. He is a frequent contributor to Informed Comment, and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and Indy Week.