Tension in the Baltics: is Russia going too far?

Finland's defence ministry announced this week that it had fired warning shots at an unidentified object in its waters, sparking speculation that Russia has once again been overstepping its boundaries.

The Times reports that the vessel , believed to be a submarine, was first detected on Monday, before straying onto the radar again on Tuesday near Helsinki. In response, the Finnish navy launched depth charges to warn off the intruder.

"We strongly suspect that there has been underwater activity that does not belong there," said foreign minister Carl Haglund, but he declined to specify which nation might be responsible. Although the origin of the submarine is not known, Finnish media has been quick to connect the episode to Russian militarism in the region.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Why are the Baltic nations so worried about Russia?

The latest scare is the latest in a string of suspicious incidents, apparently connected to Russian military activity, that have put Baltic and Nordic nations on alert over the past couple of years.

In 2013, Finland uncovered a spy ring which had been monitoring the IT systems of its ministry for foreign affairs for the past four years. Russia and China are the prime suspects in the intelligence breach, which remains unresolved.

Last October, Sweden was gripped by a report that an unidentified object had been spotted in its waters, also believed to be a foreign submarine. Over 200 personnel were deployed in search of the vessel, but no trace of the interloper was found.

The Swedish defence ministry remained tight-lipped over the incident, but media outlets in the country revealed that the military had intercepted a distress call in Russian which may have originated from the vessel.

While the Kremlin has denied that it is trying to menace its neighbours, Russia has increased its international military activity since the start of the Ukrainian crisis. Nato member states deployed planes to intercept Russian jets in their airspace over 400 times in 2014, a 50 per cent increase on 2013, reports Bloomberg.

What are Russo-Finnish relations like?

Increasingly tense. The relationship between Finland and Russia is a complex one, rooted in centuries of conflict as well as cooperation. Of all the Nordic nations, Finland has the most to lose in any confrontation with Russia, as it relies heavily on Russian trade and was severely affected by the plummeting value of the rouble in the latter half of 2014.

In general elections held earlier this month, pro-European prime minister Alex Stubb was replaced by the more centrist Juha Sipila, The Economist reports, which some have interpreted as a signal that Finland wanted to distance itself from the EU's hard line on Russia. At the same time, however, Finland has had a troubled history with its powerful neighbour. After several spells under Russian rule, Finland gained independence in 1917, only to be invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939. This led to the Winter War and the Continuation War, a bitter fight in which outnumbered Finnish troops held off Soviet forces.

Today, the Finns seem to have an ambivalent attitude towards their neighbour, mindful of their uneasy dependency on the Russian economy while also critical of Russia's perceived militarism in the region.

"Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb has argued that the country needs to join NATO, and a growing share of the public seems to agree, although the ­issue remains hugely sensitive here," the Washington Post reports. "Even Finns who favor membership in the alliance acknowledge that joining would be a gamble, with Russia threatening to disrupt the peace and prosperity this country has long enjoyed if Finland makes a sudden lurch toward the West."

After Finnish jets were scrambled to confront Russian planes infiltrating their airspace last year, Finnish president Sauli Niinistö made it clear that Finland would not be intimidated. "The Finnish way of dealing with Russia, whatever the situation, is that we will be very decisive to show what we don't like, where the red line is. And that is what we are prepared to do," he said. "The Russians turned back. If they had not, what would we have done? I would not speculate."

How have other Nordic nations responded?

Both officially neutral, Finland and Sweden caused international observers to sit up and take notice when they issued a joint statement in April last year alongside Norway, Iceland and Denmark announcing a loose alliance against Russian aggression in the region.

"We must be prepared to face possible crises or incidents ... We have to relate to Russia's actions, not the Kremlin's rhetoric," the uncharacteristically stern statement read. It went on to accuse Russia of behaving in a 'challenging way' along their borders. The five Nordic nations will be participating in more joint military exercises and pooling their intelligence as a result of the agreement.

What is the Kremlin saying?

Russia has consistently denied being involved in nautical espionage. After the Swedish incident last year, defence ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov cautioned against 'rhetoric in the spirit of the cold war', warning in no uncertain terms that 'uncorraborated' accusations against Russia could only lead to 'an escalation of tension in the region'.

This kind of talk is unlikely to reassure many of the nation's neighbours, most of whom are busy ramping up their security. Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have all announced plans to increase military spending, while Poland is planning a £17 billion overhaul of its air defence system.