Do one in five British Muslims really support Islamic State?

The Sun has claimed that nearly one in five British Muslims has "some sympathy" with those who have fled the UK to fight for Islamic State in Syria. The claim, made on the newspaper's front page yesterday, has led to widespread anger and fuelled allegations that the tabloid has stoked anti-Islamic sentiment that could put the welfare of ordinary Muslims at risk. The Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) recorded 450 complaints about the front page, the most since the watchdog was set up last year, and more than 15,000 people have signed a petition asking The Sun to remove the article and apologise.

How was the poll conducted?

Survation polled 1,000 people last week after calling people with "Muslim surnames" and checking their religion, says The Guardian, a method that "rival polling companies said did not necessarily amount to a representative sample of the British Muslim population". The paper's regular pollsters, YouGov, refused to do the poll because it was not confident that it could accurately represent the British Muslim population within the timeframe and budget set by the paper. There was also no comparison with non-Muslims – in March this year, Survation found that 13 per cent of non-Muslims expressed at least some sympathy with young Muslims fighting in Syria, suggesting, in its words, that "attitudes held by the Muslim and non-Muslim populations are not that different".

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How was the figure reached?

Through the addition of two sets of results. Five per cent of respondents agreed with the statement "I have a lot of sympathy with young Muslims who leave the UK to join fighters in Syria". A further 14.5 per cent said they had "some sympathy" with them. The Sun added these up to reach 19.5 per cent, which they rounded up to 20 per cent. Conversely, 71.5 per cent said they had no sympathy for young Muslims who leave the UK to join fighters in Syria.

Was it a fair question?

As The Independent points out, the question does not actually mention Islamic State or jihadis. "Fighters in Syria" could refer to the Kurdish YPG fighting against IS, which has featured in a number of positive news stories such as this one by Channel 4 News:[[{"type":"media","view_mode":"content_original","fid":"87261","attributes":{"class":"media-image"}}]]

Some have also suggested that the use of the word "sympathy" is problematic. "One can have sympathy for a position but not agree with it," says the Guardian.

What are the consequences?

The result "would fail the simplest peer review", statisticians say. For some commentators, the poll was intended to provide a snappy, thought-provoking headline rather than robust analysis, but others said that it is an irresponsible claim to make lightly at a time when British Muslims feel vulnerable. The Independent has reported that Muslims in Britain have suffered more than 100 racial attacks – a spike of 300 per cent – since the terrorist atrocities in Paris.