Could Theresa May stay the course?
A good month for the PM has led to a growing belief she may live to fight another election
A year ago, Theresa May was riding high. Having triggered Article 50, she had the Conservative party lock-step behind her and a 20-point lead over a hapless Labour.
Then her decision to call an early election changed everything, wiping out her Commons majority and leaving her a political dead woman walking.
Everyone, both within her party and the wider Westminster commentariat, believed it was just a question of when, not if, she went.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Perceived as terminally weak, she faced a continuous leadership challenge, a divided cabinet, an increasingly rebellious backbench and a resurgent Jeremy Corbyn.
But after a month in which she has won widespread praise for her handling of the Salisbury poisoning scandal, eased business fears by agreeing a Brexit transition deal and silenced those calling for her head, some have begun to suggest May is not as unelectable as previously thought.
Her rising popularity in recent weeks led Spectator columnist Steerpike to say he “has detected the faint whiff of May-mania on the horizon”.
Making comparisons between May’s tough stance towards Vladimir Putin and Margaret Thatcher’s handling of the Falklands War, The Daily Telegraph said “there is nothing quite like standing up to a foreign bully to enhance a leader’s domestic reputation”.
The diplomatic coup of getting Britain’s allies in Europe and elsewhere to expel more than 100 Russian diplomats “adds to the growing mood at Westminster that the PM might have got her groove back”, agrees Stephen Bush in The New Statesmen.
“The theory runs like this,” he says. “She's had a good crisis, and if she can get a good Brexit deal, there will be no real pretext to get rid of her. Another defensive reshuffle in which no plausible better candidate emerges and you can just see how she might end up fighting the next election after all.”
Theresa May has herself said she would like to lead her party into the next election, and has repeatedly told aides that she does not want her premiership solely defined by Brexit.
For once, it looks like she may get her way, says Politico. “The champagne corks should be popping in No 10,” it says, because “for the first time in what feels like forever, Brexit barely featured in yesterday’s papers amid a barrage of domestic policy announcements”.
Labour by contrast, has endured a torrid few weeks. Jeremy Corbyn’s attempts to politicise the Salisbury poisoning, then his failure to pursue a strong line against Russia, incensed many in his party, as well as much of the media.
This was compounded by the anti-Semitism row which has rocked the party this week. Coupled with the Labour leadership’s continued ambivalence about Brexit and the ongoing threat from hard-left Momentum activists, it has strained the uneasy truce between moderates and Corbynites that has held since the election.
If it collapses entirely, expect a repeat of the antics that characterised the Labour party in the 12 months between the referendum and the election.
Chaos in Labour’s ranks just as the country nears the Brexit departure date would further boost the perception that May can in fact provide her much-derided “strong and stable” government.
She can also point to polls showing that, despite the travails of the past year, the Tories have remained level with Labour (or in some cases even ahead), while her personal ratings still top those of Jeremy Corbyn.
For the time being, the dead woman walking may have some life left in her yet.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
China tries to bury deadly car attack
Speed Read An SUV drove into a crowd of people in Zhuhai, killing and injuring dozens — but news of the attack has been censored
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Senate GOP selects Thune, House GOP keeps Johnson
Speed Read John Thune will replace Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader, and Mike Johnson will remain House speaker in Congress
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Patriot: Alexei Navalny's memoir is as 'compelling as it is painful'
The Week Recommends The anti-corruption campaigner's harrowing book was published posthumously after his death in a remote Arctic prison
By The Week UK Published
-
Will Donald Trump wreck the Brexit deal?
Today's Big Question President-elect's victory could help UK's reset with the EU, but a free-trade agreement with the US to dodge his threatened tariffs could hinder it
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Labour risking the 'special relationship'?
Today's Big Question Keir Starmer forced to deny Donald Trump's formal complaint that Labour staffers are 'interfering' to help Harris campaign
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Men in Gray suits: why the plots against Starmer's top adviser?
Today's Big Question Increasingly damaging leaks about Sue Gray reflect 'bitter acrimony' over her role and power struggle in new government
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the next Tory leader?
In Depth Shortlist will be whittled down to two later today
By The Week UK Last updated
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published