US midterms 2018: polls, predictions and key seats to watch

On 6 November, millions of Americans will go to the polls in the 2018 midterm elections, the first electoral challenge for Donald Trump since he was elected president in 2016.

In all, a third of the 100 seats in the US Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs.

Currently, the Republican Party holds a majority in both houses. If Democrats gain control of either, they will curtail the president’s ability to advance his agenda and gain powers to investigate his administration.

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In addition to elections in the House and Senate, 35 states will hold elections for governors, the results of which will have “national implications”, reports CNN, in part because of their power to pass or block legislation and in part because they will help to set electoral rules and boundaries. Republicans hold 26 of those states and nine are governed by Democrats.

What are the polls saying?

As the election draws closer, Donald Trump's campaign has “all but [given] up” on maintaining Republican control of the House of Representatives, according to Bloomberg.

The FiveThirtyEight forecasting poll reports Democrats have a 85% chance of taking back the House from the Republican Party. According to their modelling, Democrats are expected to gain 38 seats next week. The party needs a net gain of 24 seats to reach 218 and gain a majority.

The Washington Times highlights an election model made by Joseph Bafumi, an associate government professor at Dartmouth College. Bafumi told the Times “Democrats will end up with at least 221 seats in the House” and that “it could be more”.

Republicans are expected to retain control of the Senate. According to the FiveThirtyEight interactive forecast poll, Democrats have a 15.2% chance of winning the Senate, despite needing only a net gain of two seats to take control. Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, 26 are held by Democrats.

What are the key seats to look out for?

There are 73 highly competitive House seats in contention, according to the Cook Political Report by The New York Times. Of those, 29 are considered toss-ups, with seats in Ohio, California, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, among others, up for grabs.

There are ten Senate elections to look out for, says Vox. These include the race in Missouri between long-term incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R). Hawley is a staunch Trump supporter and McCaskill, a moderate Democrat, has made progressive changes in Missouri since her election in 2006. If Hawley wins, he could undo her reforms.

Another important Senate election takes place in Texas between incumbent Ted Cruz (R) and Beto O’Rourke (D). An Emerson College battleground poll has Cruz leading by a small margin, but if O’Rourke pulls ahead it could be a major upset to the largely Republican state of Texas.

In Georgia, a historic state governor’s race pits Brian Kemp (R) against Stacey Abrams (D). Abrams is the first black female state governor candidate from a major party, but Georgia is a solidly Republican state and the race remains tight.

When will we know what's happened?

On the East Coast, polls close between 6 and 7pm Eastern Daylight Time (10-11pm GMT), while states on the West Coast close their polls between 6 and 8pm Pacific Daylight Time (1-3am GMT). Results from close races might not be known until Wednesday.