Jeb Bush kicked off the 2016 presidential contest in earnest today, announcing in a Facebook post that he would "actively explore the possibility of running for president." The move falls a couple steps short of a formally declared candidacy, but it does send an unmistakable signal to the Republican Party that the Bush family is back in the mix less than six years after the last Bush left the White House.
Here are four questions Jeb Bush will have to address as he prepares for a possible 2016 bid:
1. Is he conservative enough?
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The GOP has changed a lot since the days of Bush's father, whose most famous domestic policy achievement as the nation's 41st president was to raise taxes on American voters. While the party has consistently nominated centrist candidates in the years since, the primary process has gotten bloodier, to the point that Mitt Romney in 2012 had to take extreme positions on immigration, for example, to get a fair hearing from an increasingly conservative Republican base. Jeb Bush's moderate positions on immigration and education are sure to attract some not-so-friendly fire from the far right.
2. What kind of Bush is he?
Should he choose to run, Jeb Bush will occupy a very strange position in the history of American presidential politics — a candidate who has two White House legacies to embrace or run from. Will he disown the interventionist follies of his brother? How about the tax-hiking ways of his father? While his father's legacy shines only brighter as the years go by, George H.W. Bush remains something of a pariah among the Grover Norquists of this world. Meanwhile, the memories of George W. Bush's tenure — Iraq, Katrina, the Great Recession — are still fresh. On many issues, Bush's primary opponents can say at least one president in his family was on the "wrong" side. Many conservative commentators are already going there:
3. Can he muscle out the other moderates?
Bush's announcement, coming so early, is clearly an attempt at brushing back other moderate candidates who might be considering a run. Most prominent among those is Mitt Romney, who went from a certain non-candidate to a will-he-or-won't-he in the past few months. While Romney may be having second thoughts after Bush's announcement, potential newcomers like Chris Christie probably won't be fazed in their quest for the coveted spot of the establishment figure who can appeal to big-money donors while fending off right-wingers like Ted Cruz.
4. Can he beat Hillary Clinton?
This is the big question. Republican hopefuls are already trying out their attack lines on the presumed Democratic candidate. According to The New York Times, Christie has taken to resurrecting Barack Obama's quip "You're likeable enough, Hillary." (He appears to have forgotten that it backfired.) Cruz is arguing that only a true conservative can present a genuine choice to the American people. Rand Paul is painting her as the second coming of George W., an unapologetic hawk who will bury America in overseas adventures. Jeb Bush's attacks have so far been mild, mere spitballs compared to what his likely opponents have lobbed. He'll have to come up with a line that sticks.
